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(cover) Why Boko Haram may outlive Buhari govt.

Contrary to the claims of the Nigerian government, the Boko Haram terrorist group and its splinter groups have remained active, leaving tears, sorrow and blood communities in North-east Nigeria, particularly Borno State with their insurgency activities. Akani Alaka examines the turns and twists in Nigeria’s battle to put an end to the activities of the insurgents with indications that total victory over the terrorists may not be in sight. 

It was another tale of wanton destruction, looting and disruption of livelihoods as insurgents loyal to the Islamic State in West Africa Province,  SWAP, penultimate Tuesday night unleashed violence on the people of Kukawa town, in the northern part of Borno State. Initial reports indicated that eight soldiers were killed while three others were injured.

But while confirming the incident, Maj. Gen. John Enenche, Coordinator Defence Media Operations, in a statement, put the number of casualty on the part of the military at three soldiers while eight insurgents were also neutralized.

He linked the attack to the bid by the insurgents to scuttle the resettlement of people of Kukawa community who have been displaced and turned to inhabitants of Internally Displaced Persons, IDPs’ camps by their activities.

Indeed, Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State as part of the efforts to return the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the terrorists to their communities had on July 29 flagged off the re-opening of Munguno-Cross Kauwa-Kukawa Road.

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He followed up with the resettlement of some of the displaced people in the new homes built for them by the state government in their communities on August 2, over two years after they had been holed up in IDPs camps in Maiduguri. The governor had provided the villagers who were escorted back to their communities by soldiers with farm implements and other basic necessities, which are now said to be attracting the insurgents. 

The convoy of the governor himself was attacked on July 29, 2020, in the process of resettlement of the villagers on 29 July. He attributed the attack to sabotage by the military, but the Commander of Operation LAFIYA DOLE, the code name for the special military operation against the insurgents in the North-east denied the allegation. So, the military was right when it said the attack by the terrorists was a deliberate attempt to “reverse the milestone achievements” recorded regarding IDPs in the areas of peace-building, reconstruction, rehabilitation, and resettlement efforts by the government.”

Unrelenting Terrorists

But the people of Kukawa were not the only one at the receiving end of the terrorists who are said to be taking advantage of the usual sprouting of bushes, which give them cover during the rainy season as well as worsening of the state of the roads to carry out their atrocities.

A newspaper report quoted members of the vigilance groups fighting alongside soldiers as well as security sources that at least 100 persons have been abducted from communities surrounding Kukawa in 10 days as the insurgents embarked of recruitment of fresh young boys being conscripted to carry arms or turned into sex slaves while parents are forced to pay ransom to get their children back.

The terrorists had also recently attacked Magumeri, a community about 48 kilometres to Maiduguri during which they destroyed a hospital and looted medicines and destroyed vehicles and agricultural equipment. In a report published on 11 August 2020, Abuja-based Daily Trust newspaper indicated that terrorist groups had killed 223 civilians, 82 soldiers and seven policemen in various locations in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states, the epicentres of the insurgency in the first seven months of the year.

United States-based Council of Foreign Relations in its Global Conflict Tracker estimated that about 37,500 lives had been lost to the insurgency since May 2011 while 2.5 million persons had been displaced in the Lake Chad Basin.

It also estimated that about 244,000 Nigerians are now taking refuge in neighbouring countries after insurgents displaced them from their communities.

Twist And Turns In Over 10-year Battle Against Boko Haram

The insurgency, now in its 11th year started in 2011 following the extrajudicial killing of the leader of Boko Haram, Mohammed Yusuf after he was captured during an uprising by members of his group, which described themselves as members of Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād in 2009 in Maiduguri.

The group, which at a time, had its members serving in the government of Borno later metamorphosed into a terrorist group seizing territories, attacking security operatives and sacking government offices across the vast territories of the state.

Led by Abubakar Shekau, the group extended its deadly activities from Borno to Yobe and Adamawa states while it also carried out attacks which claimed hundreds of lives in Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Kogi, Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory.

In 2014, the group gained global attention when it kidnapped nearly 300 girls from a school in Chibok, Borno State and carried out bombings, which claimed nearly a hundred lives at bus stations in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory. About 10,849 deaths were attributed to the insurgents who also spread their activities to neighbouring Cameroon, Chad, and Niger in that year.

The group also took over most of the local governments in Borno State after the sack of civil authorities. It sustained its activities by looting banks and imposing taxes on persons and business activities in the areas under its control which it administered using the Sharia system.

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However, ahead of the 2015 general election, the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan with the support of South African mercenaries and the Multinational Joint Task Force comprising troops from Nigeria’s neighbouring countries also affected by the insurgency was able to drive out the terrorists from most of the areas they occupied in Borno.

The coalition of troops led by Nigeria forced the terrorists to retreat into Sambisa Forest and bases at Lake Chad.

Perhaps out of desperation for support against the military onslaught,  Shekau in March 2015 announced that his terrorist group had aligned with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in March 2015, with Boko Haram becoming the “Islamic State’s West Africa Province” (ISWAP).

Buhari Promised To End Boko Insurgency

However, with the killings and disruption of socio-economic activities especially in North-east Nigeria, the issue of the insurgency was one of the major campaign points in the 2015 presidential elections.  Ending the insurgency in Northeast Nigeria was one of the major campaign points of President Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the then opposition All Progressives Congress, APC.

As a former military head of state who had also commanded a division of the Nigerian Army, many Nigerians believed that the APC candidate had the capacity to deliver his promise and thus, supported his ambition.

In his inauguration speech on May 29, 2015, the then newly elected President Buhari had noted that the most immediate security problem confronting the country was Boko Haram’s insurgency. He noted that “through official bungling, negligence, complacency or collusion Boko Haram became a terrifying force, taking tens of thousands of lives and capturing several towns and villages covering swathes of Nigerian sovereign territory.” 

He, therefore, promised that armed Forces would be fully charged with prosecuting the fight against Boko haram. The President had consequently ordered the relocation of the military command centre for fighting the insurgency from Abuja to Maiduguri, in his words, ‘until Boko Haram is completely subdued. Buhari also promised to rescue the Chibok girls and all other innocent persons held hostage by insurgents.

The President had followed up with his promise of energizing the war against the insurgents with the appointments of new service chiefs on 13 July 2015. He appointed Maj.-Gen. Babagana Monguno (rtd.) as the new National Security Adviser, while General Abayomi Gabriel Olonishakin emerged as the new Chief of Defence Staff. Also, General T.Y. Buratai was appointed the Chief of Army Staff; Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas, the Chief of Naval Staff and Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar as the Chief of Air Staff.

Initial Successes

According to analysts, the military chiefs lived up to expectation as they put the insurgents under tremendous pressure between 2015 and 2017. Indeed, the Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Tukur Buratai had presented the flag of Boko Haram captured after the group were allegedly displaced from its stronghold in Sambisa forest to the President at the Guards Brigade Regimental Dinner in December 2016.

The then Theatre Commander, Operation Lafiya Dole, Maj. Gen. Lucky Irabor told Buhari that the flag was discovered after troops ‎‎successfully captured ‎the‎ “Camp Zero”, ‎the strongest enclave of Boko Haram terrorist sect, in the Sambisa Forest.‎

‎Irabor, also disclosed that ‎about 1,240 suspected Boko Haram terrorists were arrested during a mop-up operation by troops inside the Sambisa forest at the event. Security sources attributed the successes recorded in the war against Boko Haram in the first three years of the Buhari administration to stronger coordination between the military and between Nigeria and her neighbours as well as improvements in welfare for the troops and armaments deployed by the armed forces. 

Working with members of the local vigilance group, Nigerian troops had also gone on offensive instead of waiting to repel attacks from the insurgents and were thus able to push Boko Haram out of towns and villages they had occupied, including their Sambisa forest strongholds. 

The military was also helped by the infighting which resulted in the emergence of various factions within the terrorist group.  Therefore, in the first two years of the Buhari administration, the ability of Boko Haram to launch coordinated attacks on military facilities, town and villages was curtailed.

But the terrorist group kept itself alive with occasional bombing attacks targeting crowded places and government facilities, especially in Maiduguri and other towns in Borno State. With the development, President Buhari and the military had at various times declared victory over Boko Haram.

Resurgence/Attack on Zulum

However, the group began a gradual resurgence in 2018, the same year one of its factions led by Mamman Nur affiliated to the Islamic State abducted 110 girls from a secondary school in Dapchi, Yobe State. After a series of negotiations, 105 of the girls who were abducted on February 19, 2018, were freed on March 21, 2018.

While five of the abducted girls reportedly died in custody, the insurgents are still holding Leah Sharibu, the only Christian among the abducted students. While the terrorists make occasional forays into Yobe and Adamawa State, Borno State has remained the epicentre of their deadly activities as the number of deaths recorded to the activities of the insurgents in the first seven months of the year have revealed. 

The concerns of the people of Borno about the worsening state of security we’re expressed by no less a person than the Shehu of Borno, Alhaji Garbai Elkanemi during a visit to the Governor of the state earlier this month. While condemning the attack on the convoy of Governor Zulum, the traditional ruler noted that if the governor’s convoy could be attacked, nobody was safe any longer in the state.

A day before the visit, the Boko Haram insurgents carried out a mortar attack on Maiduguri where six persons were officially declared killed and 27 injured. The traditional ruler noted that the people of Borno lived in perpetual fear because the state was no longer safe.  “We are not happy about what happened in Baga. It is very unfortunate and a great pity. If the convoy of the governor could be attacked, nobody is safe because he is the number one citizen of the state. He is the chief security officer of the state. “If a convoy of such highly placed person in the state will be attacked, nobody is safe. The matter is getting worse, I urge everyone to raise up our hands to seek Allah’s intervention.” 

A report in a national newspaper had last week indicated that the insurgents are controlling territories in the 17 local government areas of Borno State. Most of the local governments in the Northern part of Borno, according to reports, are under the control of the insurgents who are imposing levies on the people to sustain their activities and controlling fish and cattle trade.

The presence of the terrorists has frustrated the efforts of the state governor to take away the refugees and resettle them into their communities. Also, humanitarian workers consider a large part of the state unsafe for their activities, thus denying vulnerable communities the much-needed aid. The terrorists have also continued to kidnap and slaughter aid workers.

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When his convoy was attacked in Kukawa for instance, the Borno Governor had expressed disappointment at the inability of the military to rid Baga and environs of insurgents. “You have been here for over one year now. There are 1,181 soldiers here. If you cannot take over Baga, which is less than 5 kilometres from your base, then we should forget about Baga. I will inform the Chief of Army Staff to redeploy the men to other places that they can be useful,” the governor who later said he might deploy vigilance groups to guide the communities said.

Buhari Urged To Tackle Insurgency

At a recent meeting with President Buhari, governors from the North-east states had also raised the alarm that the insurgents were recruiting more members from the IDPs. Led by Zulum, their chairman, the governors, after the closed-door meeting, which was also attended by the service chiefs said there was the need to create an enabling environment for the return of socio-economic activities to the communities which had been deserted. 

They also advised the Federal Government to empower the police with the state-of-the-art equipment to enable them to join in the battle to rein in the insurgents. “We told the president that there is a need for the Federal Government to address the causes of the insurgency, which are not limited to endemic poverty, hunger among others. One of the root causes is that of access to farmlands, people need to go back to their farmlands, people need to be resettled in their original homes so that they can restart their means of livelihood. This is one of the reasons the insurgents are recruiting more into the sect,’’ Zulum told journalists.

The President was said to have told the security chiefs that they were not living up to expectations. Buhari, according to a statement on what transpired at the meeting issued by Malam Shehu Garba, one of his media aides, recalled that one of the three promises he made when campaigning to lead the country was guaranteeing the security of lives and property. “The general report I am getting, other than from the conventional ones from the intelligence sources, is that the Army should do better and this is the truth. It is so often coming to me that I have to believe it. I assure you that the government is doing its best. I assure you North-east governors, especially the governor of Borno, that we go to bed and wake up thinking about you and how to secure our country.”

The Chief of Army Staff was also reported to have said at the meeting that Boko Haram terrorists have been flushed out of states in the region, leaving Borno State as the last stop. ‘‘We are coordinating with civil and traditional authorities, mobilising and reinforcing and all we need is patience.  We will not relent,” he said.

Why Boko Haram War May Not Be Won

Security analysts have attributed the setback in the war against insurgents to the frequent change in commanders assigned to lead the anti-terror war.  Controversies trailed the deployment of the Theatre Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole, Major-General Leo Irabor credited with leading the battle to push out the insurgents in 2018 for example. There is also the argument that countries in the region are no longer cooperating under the  MNJTF as they used to do.

In addition, the Nigerian military, according to analysts lacks the needed manpower and other resources to effectively monitor and deploy troops to the vast expanse of Borno, which also has a border with three countries. The military is also stretched thin with its deployment in at least 32 states for internal security duties. It has also adopted the ‘Super Camp’ strategy in which a large number of troops and equipment are placed in strategic areas in the war front rather than scattered in small units across the areas.

The strategy was part of the moves by the military to stop the frequent attacks on troops and looting of equipment by the insurgents. 

But analysts said with the new strategy, the insurgents have now gone back to occupy some of the areas previously liberated as they are left fallow and ungoverned. The terrorists are said to be launching hit-and-run attacks from the ungoverned spaces.

There have also been speculations that the terrorists might be receiving support from foreign powers who are determined to undermine Nigeria. However, security sources who spoke to this newspaper dismissed the claim. According to them, two of the major powers – the United States and the United Kingdom are not only supporting Nigeria with resources to fight the insurgents but have also been involved in the training of the troops fighting Boko Haram. Other world powers, according to them, have also been supporting Nigeria. 

Nevertheless, Lai Mohammed, minister of information, recently alleged that some of the world powers had refused to sell to Nigeria weapons needed to fight insurgency in the country. Mohammed added that when needed weapons are denied, the international community cannot accuse Nigeria of failing in its fight against insecurity. “For more than two to three years now, we have paid for certain vital weapons that they have not released to us and they even refused to give us spare parts. I think our appeal to them is that they should please help Nigeria to provide us with these sensitive platforms so that we can fight insecurity more effectively.”

There have also been repeated calls for the sack of the service chiefs to re-energise the war against the insurgents. The National Assembly had twice passed a resolution calling on the President to relieve the service chiefs who had passed the retirement ages of their appointment to give fresh impetus to the anti-terror war.

The latest of such resolution was passed on 22 July with the Senate calling on the service chiefs to resign or be sacked due to the multi-pronged security challenges in the country. But the presidency swiftly rejected the call, asserting that the removal or otherwise of the security chiefs is the prerogative of the President.

Also, Senator Ali Ndume, the Borno State senator who moved the motion which led to the passage of the resolution denied calling for the sack of the service chiefs. Ndume had in his motion entitled ‘Matter of urgent national importance’ premised on the rising number of casualties among the armed forces and other security agencies due to escalating banditry and insurgency in the country catalogued the killing of scores of soldiers in Borno and Katsina States, warning that, “If the trend continues, it will have serious implications on the fight against insurgency, banditry and other forms of criminality in the country.”

According to him, the sack of service chiefs without provision of the necessary equipment and resources will not change the current trend: “To win this war, we need number, technology and equipment, which the armed forces don’t have. So how can you blame people that sacrifice their lives?”

With the country struggling to pay salaries and the economy in doldrums, the demand for more men, technology and equipment is one that may not be met in the near future with the possibility that the insurgency will outlive the Buhari administration.

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