Razaq Bamidele
The Abdulrazaq campaign will face stiff opposition in 2023 but political pundits say the governor is in a pole position to scale through any hurdles including the Saraki challenge.
Before the famous Saraki Dynasty could suffer a political setback in 2019, a powerful movement, code-named ‘O to ge’ (Enough is enough) had to be birthed. The movement, which had the overwhelming support of the grassroots masses of the state eventually showed the exit door to the dynasty that has bestridden the state’s political landscape like a colossus, which it really was, till the drum stopped and the dancers retreated to their various homes.
However, no sooner the O to ge new masquerade took the centre stage with the progressives from the then opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), winning the governorship race than cacophonic noises began to hit the political watchers’ eardrums from the same O to ge house of victory.
READ ALSO: Lai Moh’d fires back at Gov. Abdulrazaq, says ‘he’s a liar’
Reports had it that the house was polarised along two divides with one pitching its tent with the newly installed governor, AbdulRahaman AbdulRazaq, and the other with the vocal Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Muhammed.
As usual, the bone of contention is always about the control of the party structure in the state. While the elders would want to be firmly in charge of the party structure, the governor would want to exercise his power as dictated by the party’s policy that gives him the leadership structure of the party on a platter of gold. Meaning, while the governor administers the state, he also has to oversee the smooth running of the structure on which he rode to power. Against this backdrop, tendencies are that frictions would be imminent.
The festering frictions between the two camps came to the open in October 2021 during the party’s congress in the state. It is on record that two parallel congresses were held from which two state chairmen of the party emerged. The former state Caretaker Committee Chairman, Hon. Bashiru Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB), believed to be loyal to the Information and Culture minister, was retained by his camp through proclamation while the other camp loyal to the governor elected Sunday Fagbemi, as APC state chairman.
Interestingly, however, while neither Bolarinwa nor the minister, Lai Mohammed, put up appearances at the event, the country’s electoral umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as well as the national headquarters of the APC was not in attendance to monitor and supervise their congress.
But in the case of the governor’s camp, the congress was reportedly conducted by a seven-member committee deployed from the party’s national headquarters and led by Emmanuel Dandaura. It was also observed by officials of the INEC.
Also in attendance were the state governor, AbdulRazaq; his deputy, Kayode Alabi; House of Assembly Speaker, Yakubu Salihu-Danladi; two senators, Ibrahim Yahya Oloriegbe and Lola Ashiru, as well as members of the House of Representatives and the state House of Assembly.
Since then, the ding dong affairs in the relationship between the two camps in the same house continued unabated with each camp claiming authenticity. The interesting aspect of the matter is that while the governor’s camp is expressing the confidence over authenticity, the Bolarinwa group of the minister is also dancing round the town claiming the same authenticity.
An observer, who volunteered information on the condition of anonymity told our reporter that, “Bolarinwa and his so called executive committee are a bunch of political jokers and team of court jesters,” wondering how a congress that was not witnessed by any representative of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), could claim authenticity.
Our checks, however, revealed that the Bolarinwa camp is banking on laying ambush for the governor during the party primaries where the camp is said to be planning to dump the governor into the dustbin of history by voting for somebody else, as the APC candidate in 2023. However, an insider, who is close to the mainstream APC in the state, but who doesn’t want his name in print said whether direct or indirect primaries, the minister’s camp is already a loser, adding that those in that camp may not be holding authentic party membership cards endorsed by the governor, who is recognised as the leader of the party in the state. The implication of this, according to a political pundit, is that they may not be allowed to move closer to the venue where the primaries would be conducted let alone have any chance to influence anything in favour or against anybody.
When contacted on phone for comments, Chief Sunday Fagbemi and Alhaji Tajudeen Folaranmi, the newly elected Chairman and the Publicity Secretary, respectively, declined comments on the ground that their executive committee was yet to be sworn-in and inaugurated officially.
Reconciliation
However, another party chieftain, who said the issue is not ripe for public discussion, did not rule out proper reconciliation between the two warring camps for the benefit of all. He said politics is about giving and taking to guarantee a win-win situation. And truly, the National Leader of the APC and presidential hopeful on the ticket of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, was reported to have contacted the two divides for a round-table resolution of the knotty issue but the outcome has not been made public.
A public commentator and political analyst, Comrade Razaq Olokoba, who reasoned with the last speaker, warned that the suffering that led to the O to ge Movement would be a child’s play if the warring factions playback into the hands of their former predators.
Olokoba, who is also a Kwara State-born of Ilorin origin, therefore, admonished all the hardliners in the APC in the state to better put on their thinking caps and sink their differences. He further told them that those they chased away now appreciate the hardship of being in the opposition and would want to come back to power at the slightest opportunity.
The renowned activist, who claimed to be apolitical, however, warned that if the camp opposed to the governor thinks it can team up with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to oust AbdulRazak and enjoy under the opposition, it would amount to a wishful thinking because the new man in power would discriminate against them.
It was against this background that another pro-democracy advocate, Prince Dare Aladekoba, warned the party’s leaders in the state against suspected opposition’s spell on them expressing consternation that they appear to be behaving like people under a political spell from the opposition.
Aladekoba, who is the Convener of a right and pro-democracy organisation, the Royal Peoples Platform, RPP, dropped this note of caution in Ilorin at the weekend in a chat with our reporter: “If care is not taken and quickly too, they may end up becoming the biggest opposition against themselves,” Aladekoba said.
Taking a critical look at the way the self-made crisis is going, the concerned group leader warned that it has the potential to cause a crack that may lead to irreparable political damage that would not be in favour of anybody, stressing the need to apply political wisdom to solve the political problem.
According to him, the best strategy to apply is for all the leaders and stakeholders to tread with caution: “If not, the worst thing they will do or likely do to each other will not be as worse as what the opposition will do to them if they eventually lose power to the opposition as a result of this avoidable crisis,” he warned sternly.
While admitting that intra-party crisis is natural in democracy, he warned that what can constitute damage to a political party is the failure of the leadership to put in place eminent political figures to form a committee of conflict resolution ahead of this because they are all coming from different political backgrounds, ideologies and leanings.
“As voters and shareholders, the earlier they put the crisis behind them the better. When the electorate will take a decision, it will be taken as a collective one. They will not isolate any of them. The last election in the state when the ruling party fell to the opposition should be a good lesson and reminder, it was a situation where the entire political structure was penalised and nobody was left out of the electoral hammer, as all of them were swept away with the tide. A stitch in time saves nine,” Aladekoba reminded.
He, therefore, admonished that reason should prevail to allow Governor Abdur-Razaq Abdur-Rahmon to concentrate on the good work he has been doing for the good people of the state, cautioning that any act with tendencies that could make him lose focus should be avoided.
Defection
However, as observers were expecting the kick-off of genuine reconciliation, the situation took an alarming turn, as the faction loyal to the minister, at a press conference announced its mass movement to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
According to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), the faction, which styled itself as ‘APC Loyal’, announced its defection at a news conference in Ilorin.
The crisis that started in 2021 with the two factions holding two separate congresses has reached a crescendo now with members of one of the factions defecting to the SDP.
Addressing the press conference, Hon. Rasak Alabi, who is the Kwara South senatorial chairman of the faction was quoted to have claimed that the group was defecting with “the 193 ward chairmen, 16 local governments chairmen, and all the working committee members.
“If the national leadership of the party does not believe that we are politically relevant in the state, we need to make them understand also that the man they queued behind is also a blown-out fuse not capable of leading the party to any victory in the state come 2023,” Alabi submitted, just as he accused the governor of trampling “on democratic principles, which the party represents”.
“Consequent upon the wishes of our numerous supporters and the majority of Kwarans, we announce to you today the official defection and mass movement of supporters and party members from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP),” he declared.
Alabi was said to have concluded that, “the governance model of the Kwara governor is nothing to write about when compared to the successes achieved in other APC states.”
The Saraki factor
In recent times, the camp of the former governor of the state and the immediate past President of the Senate, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, has started bubbling. The reason for the camp coming back to life is not far-fetched. It is no more news that the former Number three man in Nigeria also wants to occupy the coveted seat, as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria after the outgoing occupier in 2023.
Against this backdrop, efforts are being intensified by the camp to ensure that no stone remains unturned to achieve the aspiration. One of the stones to be turned, according to an insider to the camp, is to benefit from the internal crisis of the APC in the state by luring all the aggrieved members into the camp with the aim of winning the 2023 gubernatorial election in the state.
Since it is no more news that Bukola Saraki, like his late father, Senator Abubakar Olusola Saraki, is a political calculator of note, he would want to capture his home base, as a prerequisite for moving up to the presidency. So, the Saraki hunters would capitalise upon any slip from the APC to strike and bring home games.
Performance
Since politics allows blowing one’s trumpet, the Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq himself seized the opportunity of a unity prayer/mobilisation for voters’ registration in Kwara South at Ajase Ipo on April 2, 2022 to mention a few things out of many that his administration has done in the southern senatorial district of the state.
Represented by his deputy, Kayode Alabi, the governor thanked organisers of the rally, expressing delight over the quality of the crowd, which he said attested to the popularity of the APC in the senatorial district.
Referring faintly to the crisis, AbdurRazaq urged the mammoth crowd to “convert our diversity to strength and move all out to mobilise the people of Kwara State to line up behind the APC in the coming elections,” pointing out that, “as the name of this gathering implies, we are stronger together.”
“The 2023 election should help to consolidate on the gains of 2019 when the great people of Kwara State — North, South, and Central — came together to end the reign of people who turned public patrimonies to their private estate, empowered urchins to unleash violence and commit crimes of all shades, and failed to lay proper foundation for a brighter future for our children. In 2019, the people voted to have a Kwara where opportunities are meant for all, and not just for people in the corridors of powers or some godfathers who shared to whom that please them,” the governor said.
“Three years down the road after Otoge, it is so far, so good! Notwithstanding the teething problems that come with every social change, we have definitely started the journey for a greater Kwara on a strong note. The 2023 election is the time to consolidate on these gains. 2023 is the time to tell those who are already plotting a return to hijack the treasury to feather their nests that, whatever the challenges of the social change of 2019, we are never going back to Egypt. We are never going to be subjected to any political demigods again.
“Everywhere you go in Kwara today, including in the remotest parts of our state, you can now see government presence in various sectors: health, education, road infrastructure, water, and general government support for the silent majority. In Kwara South alone, our administration has executed 268 projects cutting across the health sector, water, education, energy, and road construction. The breakdowns are 188 school Development projects; 33 water projects; seven healthcare projects (excluding dozens of interventions); 18 energy projects; and 22 road construction projects. These are either completed or on-going.
“Distinguished party members and elders, I charge you to put aside your differences, pursue your ambitions within limits that will keep our party strong and united even after primaries, and go all out to tout our achievements and mobilise the people of Kwara South for a repeat of the resounding victory of 2019. This is the only way to prevent those who put Kwara in a mess from regaining control of the state and the destinies of our children and generations unborn.”
Since mum is the game over the issue within the party in the state, nobody wants his name mentioned in print though they volunteered some remarks from behind the curtains. One of the Women Leaders of the APC in the state said, “as God would have it, the achievements of the governor have been speaking for him,” enthusing that, “with that, no campaign of calumny can stop his second term in office.”
A department that manages information for the government organised a phone-in programme a few weeks ago, where people were asked to call and win prizes. The prizes won included call cards, cash and other items. During the programme that lasted about an hour, over 90 per cent of the callers scored the governor more than 80 per cent in performance. The callers were asked to mention projects executed by the governor in their various areas.
A government official, who spoke with our reporter on phone confessed that “when the idea was first muted, I was jittery thinking that we would be taken to the cleaners. But as the programme progressed, I could not hide my excitement when some projects the governor executed were mentioned, which we, as insiders, were not even aware of.”
When contacted on phone for comments, the Chief Press Secretary, CPS, to the Governor, Alhaji Rafiu Ajakaye, declined comments, saying: “With due respect, you have heard the people speak.”
Chance of defectors in 2023
Not a few analysts and political observers viewed the defection as ill-fated for a couple of factors. One, the sitting governor is from the Central District, which votes determine who governs the state. And the impression some of the defectors are creating is that the power should move to the Northern District.
Two, since politics is about seeking power, the major principal, urging them on, we learnt from good authority, hails from the Central District with an ambition to unseat Abdur-Razaq. This means the defectors and their leader have shot themselves in the foot and are already digging their own graves.
Three, their target in the North, if our findings are anything to go by, is a Christian and going by the religious factor in Kwara State, it would be a bit difficult for a Christian aspirant from the minority North to unseat an incumbent, a Muslim from the majority Central axis.
Four, in a situation where there are three major political parties contesting for the same seat, the incumbent always comes out victorious. Ogun State is a good example. During the tail end of the PDP in Ogun State after the tenure of the then Governor Gbenga Daniel, the governor’s anointed candidate, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka (GNI), could not succeed his boss because another political party surfaced along the line.
The same development repeated itself when Governor Ibikunle Amosun was leaving in 2019. His anointed candidate could not win because he fell under the umbrella of a third party. The rest is history now.
And Five, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu factor also has a very prominent role to play in determining the fate of Abdur-Razaq and his opponents. Nobody needs a soothsayer to know that if Tinubu still remains in the APC and still contesting for president in 2023, the defectors have chosen a perilous path of political suicide.
On a final note, political watchers are of the conviction that the defectors may lose the sympathy some people earlier had for them, as they would perceive them as greedy people with self-centred motives. This may compel the electorate to stick with the governor, as a ‘saint already known’ than to pitch tent with a bunch of selfish supposed ‘angels’.
So, going by this and our findings, it appears as if the second term in office of AbdurRazaq AbdulRahaman post 2023 is not under any form of threat. But since 24 hours is a long time in politics, complacency can be dangerous, as surprises are the hallmark of party politics globally.
