Razaq Bamidele
With the upcoming governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states, it would be an under-statement that the two major contenders, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are already losing sweet sleep. And there is no need for any crystal ball gazer to tell the reason for their sleeplessness.
When the preparations towards the polls commenced earlier, the electoral picture in the horizon showed that the contest was going to be majorly between the APC as the incumbent and PDP as the opposition. But some events that crept in later confirmed the saying in the political arena that 24 hours can be a very long time in politics.
As things stand now, the PDP that was hitherto the opposition in Edo State is now the incumbent while the APC that was holding sway as the ruling party has suddenly found itself on the opposition seat! It is no more news that, intractable intra party crisis within the Edo Chapter of the APC denied Governor Godwin Obaseki the primary ticket for a second term. And result was his defection to the opposition party, PDP, and thus turned yesterday’s opposition to today’s ruling party.
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However, the story in Ondo State is different as the status quo is maintained in the APC. After initial skirmishes, the party allowed sanity to prevail. At the end of the party’s primary, the sitting Governor, Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN), clinched the ticket to vie for a second term.
APC’s fears
However, the importance of the governorship polls in Edo and Ondo States cannot be overemphasized going by the implications the outcome would have on the party in 2023.
For instance, if the party fails in either of the states, the number of states under it’s control would be reduced before the election, thus putting its chance of winning the presidential election in peril. But if the party wins, its hope of a 2023 presidential victory would be bright.
The fear now is that, the party may need to shed extra sweat to convince the world that APC is still on ground in Edo State despite the defection of its governor, Obaseki to the PDP.
Former national chairman of the party, Mr. Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole would need all the arsenal in his armoury to wrestle the sitting governor to the ground and install the new man, Ize-Iyamu as the new governor.
A political observer, who spoke with The Nigerian Xpress entertained the fears that, if the voters are aggrieved with what led to the ouster of Obaseki from the APC and are also pleased with his performance in office, protest votes can be the APC’s undoing in the coming election.
He, however, reasoned that, automatic ticket for Obaseki from the PDP suggested that, it is either the PDP has no competent candidate for the contest or that it is an endorsement of Obasaki’s good work it wants continued.
The case in Ondo State, however, appears a bit stable for the APC as the selection process that gave the sitting governor the ticket to re-contest was handled with utmost care and political maturity. Hence, there has not been a post primary crisis, an indication that the party would go into the contest with a united house.
The Ondo State APC Chairman, Ade Adetimehin told The Nigerian Xpress correspondent that the state chapter is one indivisible house. “There is no faction here as all of us relate as members of the same family.”
According to him, the coast is also clear for the second term of Governor Akeredolu because of the support and cooperation his people-oriented programmes have earned him.
Another fear is that if Obaseki eventually wins the state for the PDP, sustaining APC’s incursion into that oil-rich state in South-south would be lost. It is on record that Edo State is the only South-south state the party has ever won in the south-south and losing it to the PDP would spell political doom for the APC. Against this backdrop, it would require an extra effort to retain the state for the party.
Again, before June this year when Obaseki decamped to the PDP, APC had been controlling 20 states against PDP’s 15, leaving only one state for the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). But with Obaseki’s defection, the PDP has moved up to 16 with APC having 19 and APGA one.
PDP’s hope
Expectedly, just as the APC would be working towards winning the two states to shore up its assurance to clinch the presidential seat in 2023, so would the PDP be full of hope to win the two states to be in a vantage position to win the presidency same year.
Observers are not under any illusion that the defection of Obaseki to the PDP jolted the APC, which ranking on the ladder suffered a setback. Against that backdrop, while the APC would be determined to rearrange the chart in its favour through the coming polls, the PDP would also want to be at its best to retain the newly found status and even shore it up further.
One would now appreciate the reason the former vice president, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku is supporting Obaseki to win reelection. If that happens, Alhaji Atiku’s ambition of ruling the country in 2023 would get a boost.
If the PDP retains Edo and adds Ondo State, the tally would move up to PDP 17, APC 18 and APGA 1. And in 2021 and 2022 when Anambra and Osun State respectively would go for another round of governorship polls, anything can happen. While Anambra would be a triangular battle among the APC, APGA and PDP, the Osun war would be between the APC and PDP.
The Osun battle would be tough going by what transpired in 2018 between the two contenders. In that wise, the PDP would want to prove that the 2018 performance was not a fluke. And on the other hand, the APC would want to assert its authority on the ownership of the state of the Living Spring.
Losing it to the PDP would have a question mark on the 2018 declaration of ‘inconclusiveness’ by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), before APC eventually won in a manner that the opposition described as daylight robbery.
How they stand
Right now, the ruling APC has 19 states under its control, while the PDP has 16 with the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) having only one.
APC states
Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, kebbi, Kogi, Osun, Ogun, Lagos, Ekiti, Imo, Katsina, Niger, Ondo, Nasarawa, Plateau and Kwara.
PDP states
Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers, Rivers, Bayelsa, Zamfara, Edo, Adamawa, Sokoto, Taraba, Benue, Bauchi, Oyo and Delta.
APGA state
Anambra
The Implication
The implication is that, with the above record, the thinking within political watchers’ circle is that, if the PDP harvests the two states, the number of states under its control would move up to 17 while the APC would be left with 18. But if the APC retains the two states, it would consolidate its lead with an additional state that would move the number of its states to 20 while the PDP would drop by one to control only 15 states.
If, however, the two states are shared, the situation would remain as it is 21/14.
