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(COVER) 2023: THE ODDS AGAINST IGBO PRESIDENCY

As support grows for the demand of the people of South-east Nigeria to produce Nigeria’s president in 2023, Akani Alaka writes on the agitations, prospects and challenges of the Ndigbo’s quest. 

Nigerian politicians have over the years made consultations with former military president Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida at his Minna, Niger State mansion part of their fare, especially when they are getting set to embark on a new political journey.

So, it was not a surprise that after his visit to Babangida last Monday, one of the questions former Abia State Governor, Orji  Uzor Kalu was confronted with by journalists was about his own personal ambition in Nigeria’s next general election coming up in 2023. “I am still in the Senate, and I will seek for re-election into the Senate but if our people want me to serve as President I will not hesitate,” the former governor said. 

The journalists asked the question against the background of the quest of the people of South-east Nigeria to produce Nigeria’s next president.  But he was emphatic that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is yet to zone the presidency to any of the zones in the country. Kalu, who is also the Chief Whip of the Senate added that zoning is not in the constitution of the APC while the issue of which part of the country the presidency will go in 2023 will be decided at the appropriate time by the party. 

His position is not different from that of Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State who was also confronted with a question on the quest by the people of the South East should be from their region at the presidential villa last Tuesday. 

The Imo State governor who spoke to journalists after a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari said political parties should be allowed to determine the criteria for selection of who flies their presidential ticket in 2023: “Well, you know the position is not vacant now. There is a sitting President and we are practicing partisan democracy and not tribal democracy. So, the emergence of presidential candidate will come on party by party basis, not tribe by tribe basis.

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“But if there are other internal factors that will form part of the considerations for parties taking a decision, of course, that will be entirely the job of the leadership of those political parties and I think that is the right thing to do.” 

Give Igbo PDP, APC Presidential Ticket

Uzodimma is the only governor elected on the platform of the ruling APC. On the other hand, as the Chief Whip of the Senate, Kalu is arguably holding the highest position to be held by any Igbo man at the federal level in the current dispensation. In addition, while Kalu still has a corruption case hanging on his neck, the Imo State Governor had barely spent a year in office.

As such, both men may have been tempered in their reactions to the ongoing agitations by groups and individuals from the South-east for the presidency to be zoned to their part of the country in the next general election.

Even then, a group, Southeast for President 2023 Movement (SEFORP2023) in a statement last Tuesday asked the former to “embrace realities” and stop ruling out zoning arrangement in the selection of the presidential candidates for the political parties, including the APC in 2023.

Indeed, the demand was that the two major parties, the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP should zone their 2023 presidential tickets to the South-east with threats that any of the party that failed to do so will be rejected by the people of the region.

“Ndigbo wherever they are based in Nigeria and abroad will support any of the two major political parties, APC or PDP, that embraces the Igbo presidency agenda to produce a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction in 2023, Ebere Onwudiwe, a commentator who described the quest by the South-east to produce Nigeria’s next president as an important ”all-Igbo goal for 2023,” said in a recent article. 

In making the demands, the Igbo are asking for a repeat of the 1999 scenario in which the then two major political parties, the PDP and the APP zoned their presidential tickets to the South-west, with former President Olusegun Obasanjo and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation,  Olu Falae as the beneficiaries.

The gesture then was to pacify the South-west over the annulment of June 12, 1993 presidential election won by the late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola who was from the region. “We hereby demand from the leaderships of Nigeria’s political parties to commence restructuring of their national operational structures, pursuant to rotating their presidential candidates’ position to the merit region, Southern Nigeria with a view to zoning same position to South-east geo-political zone, the actual merit destination,” the Nigeria Presidential Project, NPP, 2023, one of the many groups now championing the Igbo Presidency in 2023 said in a statement by its director media/publicity, Tony Nwachukwu.

A Demand Anchored On Justice/ Fairness

The Igbo are also anchoring their demand for the presidency on the need to ensure a sense of belonging among Nigeria’s disparate ethnic groups. As they noted, out of the three Nigerian major ethnic groups – the Igbo, Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba – only the Igbo are yet to produce a leader for the country, especially under a democratic setting.

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“In the First Republic, the country was led by Tafawa Balewa, in the Second Republic, it was led by Shehu Shagari and then, those of us in PDP made a very strong case to move the presidency to the South-east, because even the military people were all from the North, apart from Aguiyi-Ironsi who presided over for a very short time,” Okwesilieze Nwodo, a former chairman of the PDP said while making this argument.

He further argued that allowing the South-east to produce the president in 2023 will put an end to marginalization of the Igbo people, which has continued since the end of the civil war in 1970.

“For 50 years now, we have been persecuted for having fought for freedom. When will this marginalisation stop? Anybody who loves Nigeria and who wishes Nigeria well should go for Igbo presidency in 2023 for unity, fairness, equity and for Nigeria to move forward,” he said.

Beyond the South-east, the clamours for a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction are also gaining traction. Recently in Awka, Anambra State, former minister, Femi Fani-Kayode argued that allowing the Ndigbo to produce the next president would be a compensation for the suffering inflicted on the group for attempting to secede from Nigeria.

The ex-minister who spoke during a visit to Governor Willie Obiano also noted that Igbo presidency will go a long way to stop agitations by groups like the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and make the Igbo feel a sense of belonging in the entity called Nigeria: “We can ameliorate the pains of the past and make up for it. No part of Nigeria has ever lost over three million people in a crisis, so it can serve as compensation.”

Speaking in the same vein, elder statesman and former minister of transport, Chief Ebenezer Babatope said Igbo are qualified and should be given a chance to rule the country at the presidential level. According to him, every part of the country should be given a chance to lead if true and balanced federation is to be achieved.

He also dismissed claims that South-east cannot be trusted. “I don’t believe the story that the South-east cannot be trusted. If the PDP had been allowed to win the last general elections and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had become the president, of course, his vice president, Mr Peter Obi, would have been from the South-east and we all know that he is a sound fellow,” Babatope said.

“To promote justice and fair play, we must allow the South-east to take part in the leadership of the country and if it is not possible, then, let them assure us that at one time or the other, those who have not been given the opportunity of producing the president of Nigeria, will be allowed to produce the president. But the case of the South-east is very important and we must not shy away from it,” he added.

Groups like the Afenifere Renewal Movement, Middle Belt Forum and the Pan Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF had also at various times indicated their readiness to support the emergence of an Igbo man as Nigeria’s president in 2023.

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Conditional Support

Also, some elder statesmen, groups and politicians from the Northern part of the country have declared support for the ambition of the people of the South-east.  “Nigeria had three major blocks. Two of these three, namely, the North and the West have had the opportunity of producing the president. Therefore, the Igbo have a good argument because out of the three siblings, two have already succeeded at producing the president, but the Igbo have not,” elder statesman Alhaji Tanko Yakasai said.

“I for one – I am in support of it. I did it before in the era of NPN (National Party of Nigeria), when we had the arrangement that the next president after late President Shehu Shagari would come from the East. We would have settled this problem long ago if not for the military intervention,” he added.

“This time around, it would not be solely an Ndigbo affair, as all Nigerians would participate in selecting the most competent person among the Igbo that will fit the number one seat in Nigeria. He must be someone that will bring about peace, justice and equality in the country. He must be someone with the qualities of the late Zik of Africa,” Alhaji Balarabe Musa Second Republic governor of Kaduna State said while also declaring his support for the Igbo 2023 presidency.

He also claimed that majority of Northerners will support the emergence of a president from the South-east in 2023. Like the former Kaduna governor, ex-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Na’Abba last Tuesday also said he was ready to support the Igbo 2023 presidential quest if the region put its best forward.

He added that the South-east had enough competent hands that could run the affairs of Nigeria.

“In 1999, the late Alex Ekwueme would have emerged our presidential candidate if not for the strong influence of the military because we believed in him. As at today, there’s an array of competent Igbo leaders in the mould of Senator Ken Nnamani, Pius Anyim and several others from the South-east that can conveniently run our political affairs. If they bring incompetent hands it may spoil their chance in 2023, if they bring good hands I will support the South-east,” Na’Abba said during the visit of the National Political Equity Movement, NPEM, led by its convener, Chibuzor Okereke to his office.

The Challenges APC/PDP of Ticket For Ndigbo

Analysts, however, said even with the groundswell of support, getting the two major parties to zone their presidential tickets to the South-east in 2019 may be one of the biggest challenges of the Igbo 2023 project. For one, APC and PDP have for now refused to speak on the zoning arrangement that they will adopt towards the 2023 general election.

But there are enough facts in the public domain that both parties may not be thinking in the direction of the South-east. Parties that have won elections in the five states since 1999 are the PDP and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA and the APC. Currently, the APC and APGA are in control of one state each in the region while PDP is in control of three states.

But there is no denying the fact that the PDP has received the overwhelming support of the Igbo over the years with most of the senators and lawmakers from the region being elected on the platform of the party.  The region had produced Nigeria’s Senate presidents elected on the platform of the party from 1999 to 2007 and deputy senate president from for the 6th, 7th and 8th Senate.

But of the support it has received, indications are that the PDP may not be disposed to zoning its presidential ticket to the South-east. 

Governor Nyesom Wike who has emerged as one of the leaders and influencers of the direction of PDP recently said during a television interview that the party would be more concerned with doing whatever is necessary to return to power in 2023 and would not be bothered by zoning: “As an opposition party, we look at all variables. What will make us win the election should come first. That is what is important to us. The ruling party can say that (zoning), but for the opposition party, there are variables.” 

Wike had backed former speaker of the House of Representatives and the incumbent Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal in the battle for the PDP presidential ticket for the 2019 general election. Wike and Tambuwal lost the battle to former vice president Atiku Abubakar who contested as the major candidate against President Muhammadu Buhari in the election.

But there are indications that the Sokoto State governor is already making consultations with the intention to bid for the presidential ticket of the PDP in the next general election. Wike, according to sources, is still in the same boat with Tambuwal and will do everything to ensure that the Sokoto State Governor gets the presidential ticket in 2023.

In the same vein, there are indications that Atiku is also getting set to contest the presidency again on the platform of the PDP. Adamu, one of the sons of the former vice president who is also the  commissioner for works and energy in Adamawa state said there is nothing wrong if his father continues with his quest to rule the country, which began 1993. “Personally, I don’t see anything wrong with my father contesting for the presidency. In 2023, my father will be aspiring to the number one office in the land because he has been an astute, strategic,  master politician for almost four decades,” said Adamu.

The former vice president has not contradicted his son. Rather, he has been taking more interest in the affairs of the PDP and commenting on national issues to ensure that he remains relevant towards the next general election. 

Yet, there are members of the party who are also arguing that since PDP zoned its presidential ticket to the North in 2015 and did not win the election, the ticket should remain in the North. According to them, retaining the ticket in the North will be in tune with the recommendation of the Ekweremadu-led PDP Post-Election Review Committee set up to unravel reasons for the party’s loss of power to the APC in 2015.

The Committee had in the report, stated that “Since the last president of PDP extraction came from the southern part of Nigeria, it is recommended that PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2019 general elections should come from the northern part of the country. This is in accordance with the popular views and will also assuage any ill feelings in the North over any perceived breach of the party’s zoning principle.”

In APC, the prospect of getting the presidential ticket zoned to the South-east is equally dim. For one, the region has continued to be bastion of opposition to the APC. Indeed, the only APC governor in the region currently was installed courtesy of a judgment of the Supreme Court.  However, APC leaders from the region claimed that the party is gaining acceptance. They pointed out that, for instance, in 2015, Buhari polled only 198,248 votes in the region. However, in 2019, the President recorded 403,968 votes, his highest ever in the region. 

The President also scored 25 percent or more in three states, the first time he would hit the threshold in the region. “Mr President did better in this region than his performance in 2015. “This shows that our people have come to appreciate the quality leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari and how he is now using the resources to work for the collective interest of our people,” Osita Okechukwu, the Director General of Voice of Nigeria, VON, who is from the region said.

Even then, the PDP despite contesting as opposition party at the federal level still won overwhelmingly in the five states of the zone. But then, in their bid for the APC presidential ticket, the South-east will also be contesting against the South-west, which also has the same ambition.

Former Lagos governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who was crucial in the formation of APC and helped to ensure that Buhari won the majority of votes in the South-west 2015 and 2019 is one of those eyeing the presidential ticket. 

Others from the region said to be nursing the ambition of succeeding President Buhari include the current vice president, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi among others. South-west leaders of APC had touted the possibility of taking over the presidency in 2023 to convince their people to vote for Buhari during the campaign for the 2019 election.

Aside the South-west, APC chieftains from the South-south, including the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi are also rumoured to be interested in taking over from Buhari. Indeed, the crises over the leadership of the party were believed to have been instigated by the 2023 ambitions of Tinubu and Amaechi.

In addition, some APC members have insisted that the APC presidential ticket should remain in the North in 2023. In addition, some of the party’s chieftains told this newspaper last week that zoning the presidential ticket to the South-east will not guarantee votes for the party in the region.

Nigeria’s Survival At Stake

But Okechukwu, insisted that ceding the APC president ticket to the South-east will engender unity, harmony, equity and natural justice in Nigeria. Indeed, the goal of unity was achieved without doubt by this model of rotation of the presidency from the South to North – Falae/Obasanjo model – which not only featured in 1999, but also governed the 2007 and 2015 presidential elections outcome. “The rotation or zoning convention was founded by patriots who placed national interest above self-interest, not the PDP. The PDP was just a beneficiary as the contest in 1999 was between the defunct Alliance for Democracy/All Peoples Party Alliance.”

Many have also argued that the Igbo cannot be agitating for Biafra and seeking to govern Nigeria at the same time. But Nwodo said denying the Igbo 2023 presidency will even further push more people from the region to embrace Biafra agitation.

“I agree with Nnamdi Kanu in everything he says about the marginalisation of the Igbo. He, more than any other person, has put it on the international map. If Nigeria tells the elite from the South-east that they would be treated as second class citizens in Nigeria, and that they can never be president, almost all of them will go with Kanu to fight for Biafra.

The Ohanaeze Ndigbo president also said the claim that the Igbo will not be united in their quest was not right. “I don’t believe that the Igbo are not united, there has never been a time when any region produced a consensus candidate, every body emerged through primary elections. There is no zone that has produced a candidate by consensus. It doesn’t matter how many people are interested, they will be subjected to party primaries and the person with the highest vote will win.

“Anybody who wants to be a second-class citizen can support whoever he wants. Any Igbo man who wants to bequeath a secured future for himself and generation yet unborn should support this call for Igbo presidency. In the spirit of fairness and equity, Nigeria should give the presidency to the south-east in 2023, otherwise, we will join him and fight for Biafra,” Nwodo concluded.

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