Akani Alaka examines why the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, is excited by the outcome of the October 5 legislative bye-elections and the emerging knock-on effects of the outcome for the party’s 2023 game plan.
With worsening state of insecurity in every part of the country, the descent of the economy into its worst recession ever, rising cost of living and its increasing unpopularity over the way it handled the campaign against police brutality otherwise called the EndSARS protests by youths, Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has had little to cheer about in recent times. Its situation is also not helped by the recent loss of Edo gubernatorial election to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, as well as the simmering crisis within its ranks as its key chieftains jostle to take control of the structure of the party ahead of the 2023 presidential election.
But the outcome of the Saturday, 5 October bye-elections into legislative seats across Nigeria has become a new cause of cheers for leaders and members of the ruling party. Led by President Muhammadu Buhari, chieftains of APC have been chest thumping about the implications of the outcome of the legislative elections for the future and acceptance of their party by Nigerians. “From Imo, Bauchi, Lagos, Plateau and other states where the concurrent legislative bye-elections were conducted across the country, the massive electoral victories recorded by the APC are a solid display and pointer that the APC remains the only political party with a true national appeal and acceptance by Nigerians, across geo-political zones and sundry groupings,” the party’s Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Yekini Nabena, said in a statement on Sunday.
“As a governing party, the APC does not take the massive national support for granted. This is indeed a true demonstration that President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC government he leads remains massively popular with Nigerians, despite the warped narrative some opposition partisans try to sell,” he added.
In an earlier statement, the Presidency, in a statement signed by Garba Shehu, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, said results of the bye-elections show definitely that Nigerians who appreciate the efforts of the administration in making life better for all citizens, especially under an economy facing the severest test from the global Coronavirus pandemic will not be disappointed: ”We thank them immensely for their trust in the party and government. We equally thank the Interim Management Committee of the party under the leadership of Mai Mala Buni, the Governor of Yobe, and the Progressive Governors Forum under Gov. Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi State. We also thank all our governors, parliamentarians, state, local government and ward level APC chapters and the entire ranks of the membership for this brave and impressionable performance.”
While congratulating the successful candidates, Shehu said, ”President Muhammadu Buhari in particular, is very pleased with the election outcomes.”
Much Ado About Nothing
The bye-elections were held to select new occupants in 15 federal and state legislative seats across 11 states, which became vacant either as a result of the death of former occupants or in the case of Bayelsa, vacation of the seats for other electoral contests.
Specifically, the elections were conducted into nine state Houses of Assembly and six senatorial seats. The outcome of the election, as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC poll showed that APC won the Senate seats in Imo, Plateau and Lagos as well as seven House of Assembly seats in Lagos, Kogi, Borno, Katsina and Bauchi states.
The result of the House of Assembly bye-election in Zamfara State was declared inconclusive by the INEC. The main opposition PDP also won three senatorial seats, the two vacant senatorial seats in Bayelsa in addition to that of Cross River as well as a House of Assembly seat in Enugu State.
Perhaps, the only victory worthy of celebration by the APC in the by-election was the feat of Bala Ali in Dass Constituency of Bauchi State. The APC candidate was able to narrowly defeat his PDP opponent in the battle for the constituency seat. This was in spite of the fact that the state was under a PDP governor. It was believed that the victory of Ali was aided by Yakubu Dogara, former Speaker of House of Representatives who defected from PDP to APC earlier in the year who is said to be in ‘control’ of politics of the area.
But analysis of the total outcome of the election shows that the two main Nigerian political parties won in places considered to be their strongholds and simply retained the seats their members have been occupying before their deaths or vacated to contest for other positions.
Indeed, APC’s victory in Okigwe senatorial bye-election is still hanging in the balance as INEC did not return a candidate for the party. INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) in Imo, Prof. Francis Ezeonu, said the commission was unable to return a candidate from the APC as winner as a result of several court orders for and against the two major contenders, Frank Ibezim and Ifeanyi Araraume, a former senator.
INEC was served with two court judgments – one from the Court of Appeal, Owerri, and another from the Federal High Court, Abuja on the eve of the election. The Court of Appeal had in the judgment delivered 24 hours before the election upheld the candidacy of Ibezim earlier nullified by the lower court in favour of Araraume.
On the other hand, a Federal High Court, Abuja declared Araraume as candidate of the party, over claims that Ibezim presented fake certificates to the APC and INEC. So, as it is, the APC cannot fully lay claim to the Imo senatorial seat.
According to those who spoke with The Nigerian Xpress, ordinarily, the outcome of the polls should not be a cause for cheer for the ruling party. “If the APC had won Cross River North senatorial district seat or even one of the two senatorial seats in contest in Bayelsa, the celebration of Buhari and his party members would have been justified. But in spite of all the boasting by Timipre Sylva, the PDP candidate, Seriake Dickson, massively floored the APC candidate to emerge winner of Bayelsa West senatorial district seat while Moses Cleopas also beat Abel Ebifemowei to win the Bayelsa Central seat for PDP. So, why is APC celebrating?” Adekanye Adefolaranmi, a political analyst told this newspaper.
Speaking in the same in, the PDP, in a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Mr Kola Ologbondiyan, slammed the President for abdicating “his presidential responsibilities of securing the nation and managing the economy to issuing press statements for APC and struggling for media space, as spokesperson and image launderer of the party.”
The opposition party noted that it won three out of the six senatorial seats on offer in the bye-elections while the APC also won three seats. It also noted that the PDP is in a clear lead in Zamfara Bakura State Constituency bye-election, which was declared inconclusive: “It is indeed appalling that at a time Nigerians expect Mr President to frontally tackle the escalated insecurity under his incompetent watch, particularly in dealing with the recent massacre in Borno State, he is more interested in praise-singing of a party that has been rejected by Nigerians.”
Victory In spite of Widespread Disenchantment
However, those who spoke to this newspaper also said APC really have cause to celebrate because its worst fears and expectations of analysts did not come to pass in the election. The fear of the party, according to them, was that Nigerians might show their disenchantment over the recent happenings in the country under its administration by massively voting against the party’s candidates at the bye-elections. The election was conducted against the background of anger by Nigerians over mass killings and kidnappings by insurgents and bandits in various parts of the country.
Also, the increase in electricity tariff, cost of petrol and the slip of the economy into recession have led to increase in cost of living for many and it was expected that Nigerians would show their anger through their thumbprints at the polling stations.
Even more poignant was the government’s handling of the EndSARS protest, especially in Lagos where youths have alleged that the state government connived with the military to shoot protesters at Lekki toll gate, the epicenter of the protest.
The so-called ‘Soro-soke’ generation as the youths who participated in the protests are being referred had on the social media vowed to vote out the APC and the PDP from power in 2023 and it was expected that they would have started that journey by mobilizing against the two parties in the bye-elections.
This is more so since the protesters have also listed their new demands to include ‘Buhari Must Go’ and determination to end ‘godfatherism’ as represented by former Lagos Governor and National Leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
But against these expectations, the APC candidate for the Lagos East Senatorial Election, Tokunbo Abiru secured one of the most decisive victories in recent times polling a total of 89,204 votes to defeat his closest opponent, Babatunde Gbadamosi of the PDP who got 11,257 votes.
To secure the victory, Abiru defeated his opponent by a wide margin in Epe, Ibeju-Lekki, Kosofe, Shomolu and Ikorodu, the five local government areas that made up the Lagos East senatorial district. The results declared by the INEC Returning Officer for the bye-election, Prof. Ademola Oremosu of the University of Lagos also showed that despite the threat of the EndSARS campaigners, the turnout for the election was very low. For example, out of the over 1.2 million registered voters in the district, the total accredited voters was 104,894 while 102,336 was the total valid votes recorded in the election contested by candidates from 12 political parties.
Also, APC’s Obafemi Saheed also recorded massive win in the Kosofe Constituency II, Lagos State House of Assembly bye-elections. To Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the outcome of the election showed that APC is still favoured by Lagosians, despite threats to vote it out of power by some interests. “Your emergence as federal and state lawmakers is a validation of peoples’ confidence in our dear party, the APC,” Governor Babajide Sanwo-olu said in a statement by his media aide, Gboyega Akosile while congratulating the two lawmakers. “The victory of the two candidates of our party in the bye-elections clearly showed that APC remains a party to beat in Lagos, based on her achievements in the state since the beginning of the current political dispensation in 1999,” he added.
Confidence Boosted, Priming APC For 2023
Various reasons have been adduced for the more than expected victory, even by the APC in the elections. While some had blamed lack of inadequate publicity, others claim that until INEC conducts a fresh voter registration, the youths who have vowed to chase out APC and PDP from power will not be able to show their anger with their thumbprints.
There are also arguments that the youths are unable to leave the social media to translate their determination to effect a change in Nigerian politics on the streets. Some youth groups had also argued that their organization is towards the 2023 general elections. But whatever the excuses, the APC seemed to have received a fresh boost of confidence with the outcome of the election with the party already gearing up for 2023 general elections.
It was learnt that the decision to dissolve all APC executives at wards, local governments, states and zones across Nigeria taken by the party at its National Executive Committee meeting was partly inspired by the growing confidence in the ranks of the ruling party as a result of the outcome of the bye-elections as well as the recent defection of big masquerades like Governor Dave Umahi into its fold.
Governor Nasir El-Rufai who briefed journalists after the NEC meeting held at Aso Rock presidential villa also said the NEC meeting approved the extension of the tenure of Caretaker/Extraordinary National Convention Planning Committee led by Mai Mala Buni, which expires in December 25, 2020 for another six months period, to terminate on 30th of June, 2021.
This, according to him, is to enable the Caretaker and Convention Planning Committee to conclude its assignment as laid before NEC. The party also opened the gateway for fresh defections from other parties into its ranks with NEC approval of granting of waivers to persons who recently joined the party members and those desirous of joining the party in the nearest future. “By this, such new members will enjoy all the benefits and privileges accruable by virtue of their membership of the party. So they will be able to contest for positions in the party, they will be able to contest elections without any requirement of being members for number of years or period of time,” said El-Rufai.
“Leaders of APC are already preparing for 2023 out of the belief that the assertions that Nigerians may be set to dump the party because of the mismanagement of the affairs of the country in its five years in power may not be true after all going by the outcome of the bye-elections. The party was able to retain its legislative seats in spite of the Buhari Must Go clamour by some members of the opposition and Nigerians generally,” said Adefolaranmi. “It is left for Nigerians to decide if they want to keep the APC in power beyond 2023,” he added.
