Tony Olutomiwa, Yenagoa
The schedule for the governorship election in Bayelsa State recently released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is already generating an expected buzz around the state. At most social events in Yenagoa, the state capital, in particular, the election, which is slated for November 2 this year, has become a hot topic, as projections are being made on the possible outcome.
In all odds, both the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the main opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, are the two major contenders for the plum seat, though there are other fringe political parties, whose presence may not be too decisive except in the possible cases of alignment to present a common front. Basically, the battle ahead in the governorship election is between the PDP and APC.
Since the advent of the Fourth Republic, the PDP has held sway, producing all the governors and overwhelming majority in both the state’s House of Assembly and in the National Assembly. PDP has, therefore, been the dominant party in Bayelsa State and for this reason, it is often said that Bayelsa State is a PDP state.
However, the APC gained some significant strength after the last election when the party won three out of the eight National Assembly seats in spite of the huge protest by the PDP that they were stolen via rigging. Yet INEC has affirmed the seats in question, as validly won. The next stage of the contest is now at the tribunal.
As both the politicians and interested parties, especially close observers of Bayelsa politics, look ahead with keen focus on how this year’s contest turns out, what is uppermost in the whole calculations is the sanctity of the outcome that will be devoid of the usual history of violence and electoral contestation. This is an important issue all the stakeholders must address their minds to as a means of having a less rancorous election and a departure from the past come November. It is a historic election, no doubt, with many dimensions, but the common good is key, an irreducible standard to safeguard the interest of the people.
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Choice of candidates
A major issue in both PDP and APC as the permutation continues is the choice of candidates for the election. On either side of the divide, the frenzy is on with many names being touted as possible choice.
For the PDP, this is one issue that has to be carefully thought about, as it is capable of causing disaffection among its members and with electoral consequences. At the last count, no fewer than seven names are being speculated, as possible contenders. They include former Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, boss, Timi Alaibe, oil magnate, Keniebi Okoko, whose presence is noticeable at the PDP secretariat in the many chairs and tables bearing his name, Reuben Okoya, who is an ally of former President Goodluck Jonathan, Bolade Igali, a former ambassador and former secretary to the state government, and Stephen Erebor, a former majority leader in the state’s House of Assembly.
Others are Kemela Okara, who is the current secretary to the state government and ex-militant, Joshua Maciver, who seems very eager for the contest, going by such vast premises he has so decorated with party flags and colours, proclaiming his presence in the race.
With this scenario, the choice of candidate becomes a real test for the party, in which case it must strive to do all possible to pick a candidate without the usual bickering and friction, as we know it in our national politics. Again, the choice is tricky because the outgoing governor, Seriake Dickson, and concerned party leaders would be keen to have a person, who could as well carry on with the Restoration Agenda, encompassing the values of development as the party’s creed.
As a matter of fact, in a recent interview with The Nigerian Xpress, the PDP Caucus Chairman, Chief TKO Okorotie, had expressed concern that they were finding it difficult to get a successor to Dickson on the grounds that the next governor must not only be acceptable to the people, but must also be committed and purposeful by stepping in as a performer like the incumbent. But Okorotie said God would direct the party’s leadership to pick a successor.
Governor Dickson at the April edition of Praise Night, a monthly programme of the state government, also spoke about the choice question, saying his successor would emerge through “intense prayer and consultations.”
“I will formally invite everybody in this state to pray because I feel that the next leader of our state is not going to be selected from my pocket. No; I won’t do that. It is too important to come from one person. That is why we have to first commit it as a burden to God so that we can be guided not by whims, thoughts, desires and calculations of men but by His divine will and direction. After the prayers, then I will embark on intensive consultations,” he said.
At the end of the day, PDP is likely to pick a candidate by consensus, as a tradition after the said consultation and merely ratified by affirmation at the primary election. Yet it remains a conjecture what such outcome would be in terms of party supremacy and cohesion in the light of individual ambition and the zoning sentiment being canvassed by some elements in the party.
The APC on the other hand, presents a similar situation but with less crowd of contestants. Ordinarily, picking a candidate should pose limited problem. It is expected that the party would not want a repeat of the 2015 bitter experience, which really tasked it to no avail and indeed had a serious effect on the outcome of the election. In this regard, the rudiments of democracy must be allowed to prevail if APC has to be seen as serious in the election. For one, the leader of the party in the state, Timipreye Silva, who is believed to be aspiring to run again for the coveted seat, has to be straight about his aspiration by not leaving anyone in doubt unlike in 2015 when he allowed many contestants to come on board, even when he knew certainly he was also running, a development which created so much tension for the party.
Still, intra-party feud occasioned by irrepressible personal ambition may be lurking around the APC guber race, as there are unconfirmed reports, circulating in the state that the Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri, may be interested in the governorship race. If this plays out as a democratic enterprise, then there could be problem for the party and its leadership must necessarily work on this to come out as a unified entity. At least, the process should be credible and devoid of the past saga that created a bad image for it in 2015. While not ruling out the possible emergence of other contestants, the former governor, Silva, is believed to be the best choice based on his name recognition and clout but it is a decision for the party to take in due time.
Hope for a peaceful election
Beyond the choice of candidates, though, watchers of the state’s politics and election over time are wont to think ahead and call for a different situation in the November election, specifically on the issue of conducting a free and fair election where the usual violence and unbridled contest for power will be avoided this time. This should be a major concern to the allied stakeholders, namely politicians, INEC, voters, security bodies, traditional institutions and the civil society. From that horrific episode of 2015 when a particular election was cancelled about three times, leading to the now popular “inconclusive election” and violence everywhere, there should be a change of mind in November among the stakeholders to hold a peaceful election. This should be a unanimous chorus. Election in Bayelsa State has been too combative! But going by history and indeed recent general elections, this may be just a wishful thinking. Yet it is the ideal.
Indications to what could happen were last week issued out by the two main parties when Governor Dickson at the PDP state executive meeting at the party’s secretariat urged party members to be united ahead of the election, stressing that they should expect a tougher election compared to that of 2015.
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Dickson told party faithful that in the coming election, they would be contending not only with APC and its candidate, but also with the federal might, a euphemism for federal institutions, including the security forces.
“There are two systems that will clash again in this governorship election; the state system, which I lead with our teeming supporters and the federal system that will be deployed in this election. As a result, the old way of playing politics must change. Bayelsa is a stronghold of PDP. We are going to prove that again with our voters’ cards in the forthcoming governorship election. We cannot be intimidated by the heavy presence of security operatives and political thugs. They failed in the past and they will fail again this time around,” the governor said.
Without mincing words, Dickson called the APC a killer party, which cannot win election but specialist in violence.
But in a statement, the APC replied the governor to mind his use of words, stating that calling a rival body a killer party was off the mark. In the statement issued by its spokesman, Doifie Buokoribo, APC accused Dickson of “cheap blackmail”, as it said the governor was afraid of imminent defeat.
“Following the scheduling of the Bayelsa State governorship election, he tells the world that the All Progressives Congress in the state is not a political party but a “killer, terrorist” organisation. We find Governor Dickson’s vituperations crude, infantile and extreme,” he said.
The APC advised the PDP to await the verdict of the people at the polls, adding that they were ready to speak with their Permanent Voters’ Cards, PVCs, at the election.
Playing by the rule
If both leading parties go to battle in this mood in November, then there is danger to a peaceful election and, of course, the political process. Although it is not new for politicians to throw dirt at one another in the contest for power, but this must now be moderated to focus on the issues in the election. The election must not be about ego or bravado but the superior argument, recommending PDP or APC as party of choice.
In all of this, however, the primary role of INEC and security agencies in conducting a free and fair election is at the heart of the November governorship exercise. In this regard, INEC and the security bodies the governor had often talked about must try to assure the populace that they would be ready to draw a new chapter in electoral contest in the state by being above board. The politicians and their followers on either side of the rivalry must also play by the rule as the first important step towards a less contentious election, starting with the process and peaceful conduct at the polls.
In the end, the judgement should reside with the people either by voting for PDP’s continuity or APC for a change.
