2023: How far can Yahaya Bello go?

By Razaq Bamidele

It is no longer news that some politicians of note across the political parties are already warming up to succeed the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja.

With the fear of running afoul of the Electoral Act that forbids the campaign for the 2023 elections, some of those aspiring to the office of the president has not openly vocalized it.

However, their body language and actions through proxies have left nobody in doubt what they are nursing in the corridors of their political minds. Even, former governor of Lagos State and the National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose posters proclaiming his aspiration to be president has not voiced it. But political observers are not deceived by his silence because of the knowledge that, even when politicians deny knowledge of campaign posters with their smiling pictures, it is believed that there is likely to be fire behind the posters’ smokes. Not a few of the would-be aspirants have denied knowledge of such posters across all the six geo-political zones of the country.

But in the case of the Governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, keeping mute about the way his name is flying all over the place as a potential Buhari successor suggests that he considers the views of the campaigners as an exercise of their fundamental human rights as guaranteed by the Nigerian Constitution as regards freedom of association and freedom of expression.

Presently, some pro-Governor Yahaya Bello (GYB) groups have been formed, soliciting support for his presidential ambition just as they are always up in arms against any form of opposition to their course. For example, two independent campaign groups-All Nigerians United for Yahaya Bello Organization (ANYABO) and the South-West Democratic Alliance (SODA), vehemently opposed what they suspected to be a plan to truncate their principal’s ambition through strongly worded separate statements, condemning the ploy.

This happened when another group, the North Central Council of the APC came out to dissuade Bello from contesting because it prefers the APC National chairmanship seat of the party believed to have been zoned to the North-Central. The group led by one Kassim Muhammed on Thursday, April 8, advised Bello not to contest the presidential primaries of the party so that the zone would not lose the chairmanship seat.

ANYABO and SODA’s separate statements, in which they advised their principal to ignore the North Central organization were signed by Mallam Saidu Boboi (chairman) and Prince Ayansiji Adefemi and Mark Adetayo (General Coordinator) respectively.

Well, if what the President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), Yerima Usman Shettima said is anything to go by, at 45, GYB falls within the bracket of the youth his Forum wants to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023. Yerima’s position tallies with the belief of several other youth organizations across the country as realized during the #EndSARS protest last year.

Also, while Yerima and his team are not so keen about where the next president would come from, they are, however, rigid on the condition that the next president must be intelligent, competent with experience gathered through exposure. On that condition, GYB appears eminently qualified to occupy the Aso Villa from May 29, 2023.

Odds against

Party Challenges

Hurdles before GYB towards Aso Villa are numerous and formidable. His challenges would start at the party level because it is the party that would decide where the presidential slot would go in the spirit of power shift and rotational presidency principle.

And from the feelers across the country and across all the political parties, the presidential pendulum is swinging south with the South-west, South-east and South-south as potential beneficiaries. If this eventually stands, GYB would need a divine miracle to upset the party arrangement.

With other party members suspected to be interested in the race, even if Bello is allowed to participate in the primaries, can he make any meaningful impact where the likes of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Dr John Kayode Fayemi, the Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) and former Imo State governor and Senator, Rochas Okorocha are also contesting?

Religion Factor

There is no denying the fact that religion plays a vital role as a determinant factor in the political equation in the country. If that eventually becomes the factor that would determine who picks the APC presidential ticket, GYB is out along with Tinubu and Fashola.

The belief in some quarters is that since 1999, the arrangement has been Muslims succeeding Christians and Christians succeeding Muslims. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian ascended the presidential throne for eight years (2007) and was succeeded by a Muslim, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. After Yar’Adua’s demise, his deputy, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian mounted the throne. It is, of course, no news that the sitting President Muhammadu Buhari is a Muslim. Against this background, some political enthusiasts would want to come up with the demand of justice, equity and fair play to hammer home the need to have a Christian president after PMB. So, if that eventually becomes the case, Yemi Osinbajo, Rochas Okorocha and Kayode Fayemi and others like them can count themselves lucky for consideration.

Home Support

Yahaya Bello can be described as a popular grassroots mobilizer having won the governorship election twice. But, with the belief that Kogi is in the north where the sitting president hails from, the highly enlightened people of the state would not wish to embark on a wild goose chase. That, coupled with the fact that the National chairmanship slot of the party has been zoned to that region, getting the necessary home support by GYB, might be a herculean task.