2023: Can minority carry the Vote?

Razaq Bamidele

If true democracy is a game of numbers, it simply means, the majority will always carry the vote, at least, mathematically speaking. But in politics, does the refrain hold any water?

In Nigeria today, the ruling party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), is in control of 22 out of 36 states, leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 13 and the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), with only one. So, going by the refrains, mathematically, it means that if the parties maintain the present status quo ante till 2023, the APC will still retain power for another four years.

However,  in Nigeria’s political context, can the refrain, democracy is a game of numbers and majority carries the votes, work?

Past Experiences

Going down the memory lane, in the Second Republic in Kaduna State, Alhaji Balarabe Musa of the blessed memory won the gubernatorial poll on the ticket of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), against the run of play. The ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had won the majority of the seats in the state’s House of Assembly, the situation that gave the party confidence that the governorship election would just be a mere formality. Though the situation created a lot of problems for the Talakawa exponent whose credibility, honesty and love of the masses gave him the peoples mandate.

Because Musa was not in control of the legislative house, it became difficult or even practically impossible to constitute his cabinet. The problems snowballed into a crisis that led to his impeachment, making him the first democratically elected governor to suffer such a fate in the anal of this country.

Also in the aborted Third Republic, history, interestingly, repeated itself in the same Kaduna State where,  contrary to expectations the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), had the majority of members while members of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), were in the minority. But on the day of election, Alhaji Dabo Lere of the NRC won the gubernatorial election. The SDP that was expected to coast home comfortably was suffering from a divided house that robbed it of cohesion and could not go to the battle with a united house. Two gubernatorial aspirants were in court to decide who was to carry the party’s banner to the war front.

The case of the SDP then could slightly be likened to what happened in Zamfara State in 2019. Recall that Zamfara APC went into the election without a governorship candidate so to say and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also did the needful. Bello Matawalle of the PDP reaped the gain of APC’s divided house. However, what the APC lost on the electoral field has been regained through the defection of Matawalle to the APC, thereby swelling the number of states under the control of the APC.

In the same aborted Third Republic, Lagos State also experienced a similar fate. The House of Assembly was full of elected members of the SDP. The impression that the SDP, based on the situation on ground in the house, would carry the day and win the governorship election. But the rancorous situation in the SDP house made the case a reverse one. The Agbalajobi/Sarumi imbroglio gave the NRC the gubernatorial victory through Sir Michael Otedola.

In the current dispensation, PDP produced only seven lawmakers out of 25 in Cross River State, yet, it went ahead to win the governorship election in 2019. Speaker of the Cross River House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Eteng Jonah-Williams, made this disclosure when the state governor, Professor Ben Ayade defected from PDP to APC, insinuating that, the governor was back into the real party of the people of the state.

Likely Implication on 2023 Poll

On June 12, 1993, the SDP went into the presidential election with 14 states against the NRC’s 16.  SDP fielded the late MKO Abiola, as its presidential candidate while the NRC fielded Alhaji Uthan Tofa. With the spread (16 against 14), members of the NRC across the state were enthusiastic that victory for them was attainable. The 16/14 mathematical calculation then became the topic of campaign to convince the electorate that signs of victory for the NRC have already manifested. This also served as a tonic for the SDP to work harder.

At the end of the day, the SDP, with 14 states, won the presidential election adjudged across the globe as the fairest, freest and most credible in the electoral anal of the country. The whole world was convinced that the SDP’s Abiola truly won, as even Kano State, home of his NRC contender, Tofa, also fell to the SDP.

Well, how the election was thereafter mysteriously annulled by the then military president, retired General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB), is now history.

Can history repeat itself in 2023?

Indirectly reacting to the above historical insinuation, spokesman of the PDP, Mr Kola Ologbondiyan in an earlier phone chat with our reporter agreed that it is possible and feasible for the PDP to come back to power in 2023.

According to him, the so-called ‘gale of defection’ from the PDP to the APC is a mere abnormal creation of the media. He  asserted that one cannot describe defection of just three governors out of 16 as a “gale.”

Ologbodiyan, therefore, advised strongly that against 2023, nobody should underrate the PDP because it would pull a surprise. He warned that anybody, who underrates his party in the coming general election does so at his own peril.

Going down the memory lane, the vocal national publicity secretary reminded that the PDP had performed such an electoral feat in the past, recalling the party defeated the APC in Bauchi, Adamawa and Imo states in the last election, “before they went through the back door to steal it (Imo State).”

Exuding confidence, the veteran journalist also pointed out that due to people’s love for the party, the PDP also snatched Oyo State from the claws of the ruling APC.

He added: “We achieved all these through the people in whom power resides and they are determined to repeat the same in 2023 because of the mass failure of the APC.”

Ologbodiyan lamented that the PDP would have achieved more if not for the APC legal rascality!

He hinged his confidence on the alleged failure of the current administration of the APC to tackle insecurity in the land, saying the situation is so worrisome that states are evacuating their students in tertiary institutions from volatile areas like Jos in Plateau State.

Also upvest that the PDP is on its way back to power, former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, also toed Ologbodiyan’s line of thinking that Nigerians are anxiously waiting for the return of the party in 2023.

Atiku was reported to have made the remarks in Rivers State during a meeting with the state governor, Nyesom Wike.

He had reportedly said: “Nigerians are waiting eagerly for PDP to take over power at the federal level in 2023. I believe Nigerians can’t wait for 2023 to come, so that PDP will return.”

He based his optimism on his conviction against the prevailing insecurity in the country which he regretted is bad, informing that, the PDP at the appropriate time would unveil its policies on how it would address the issue.

“I have never seen it (insecurity) this bad. I am 70 years plus; I have never seen it this bad in terms of security challenges, in terms of economy, in terms of unemployment. This is the worst.

“Why can’t you give us time? We will come up with our policies. We will present them to Nigerians when the time comes. We have done that before. Under PDP, we recorded the highest economic growth, the best foreign reserves, we reduced unemployment. You know that we can do it,” Atiku was reported to have declared.

Supporting Atiku and Ologbodiyan is the Minority Leader in the Senate, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, who, in a down to earth interview with The Nigerian Express in Abuja recently predicted the falling apart of the APC before 2023.

According to him, President Muhammadu Buhari is the only glue holding together the party now. He predicted the disintegration of APC before the next presidential election in 2023, confirming his conviction that, PDP could still come back to power because APC would not be in existence let alone win any election.

However, Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, expressed apprehension, saying for the PDP to come back to power in 2023, the party needs to increase the number of states under its control. He believieves that it is when the party is in control of more states than the ruling APC the opposition PDP could come back to power in the next election.

Obaseki was reported to have expressed his fear when playing host to Atiku Abubakar, who paid him a courtesy call recently.

However, the Presidency, through the Special Adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari on Media and Publicity, Mr Femi Adesina, in one of his periodic political postulations, predicted that, “PDP may become empty shell before 2023,” and ceases to exist.

In the write-up, entitled, ‘Speaking to PDP in the language it understands,’ Adesina, who was the past President of the Nigerian Guild of Editors, stated that, whenever the PDP makes any gain, to its members, all is well, adding, however, that it screams blue murder whenever it suffers any setback.

His words: “The opposition Peoples Democratic Party is being spoken to in the language it understands. And it is screaming blue murder.

“PDP is being ravaged and savaged politically, and if care is not taken, the party could become an empty shell before 2023. The vessel is leaking, and taking in water massively. It may scream ‘May Day, ‘May Day’ soon and evacuate.

“The irony of it is that whenever the PDP is making gains politically, all is jolly well and good. But when it suffers reversals, then, democracy is threatened in the country.”

It is crystal clear that the former Managing Director and Editor-in-Chief of The Sun Newspapers was referring to the recent defections of three PDP to the APC in quick succession. The development has altered its position on the chart  from 15 states to 12 while the APC moved from 19 states to 22 states with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), retaining only its Anambra State for now.

Conclusion

However, with the governorship elections coming up before 2023, there are tendencies that, the table could change. The states with pending gubernatorial polls are, Anambra, 2021, Ekiti and Osun 2022 in that other.

And since 24 hours is a very long time in politics, Nigerians should, therefore, have their fingers crossed, watching events as they unfold on the political arena towards 2023.