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2019 governorship election: How the states will vote (II)

The Nigerian Xpress presents the concluding part of the two-part series on the strengths and weaknesses of political parties and their candidates in the 29 states where governorship elections are taking place next year. 16 states featured in our maiden edition.

Lagos: Waiting for a new Sheriff in Lagos

The governorship election in Lagos State became an open contest due in part to decisions by the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to deny Governor Akinwunmi Ambode a return ticket.

The refusal of APC to give the governor a second term ticket was the tonic needed by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to launch itself back to reckoning with Jimi Agbaje as its candidate. Prior to the October primary, which produced Babajide Sanwo-Olu as APC candidate, it was inconceivable that Ambode would be denied  a second term ticket, going by his achievements in just over three and half years, a performance that political analysts, noted was intimidating to opposition parties. As such, no aspirant wanted to waste money purchasing tickets to contest the governorship election in the state.

With Sanwo-Olu in the ring, APC may have unwittingly opened up its flanks for the opposition to deliver a deadly blow in 2019. It may also be a wishful thinking. But, with the current situation, pundits accept that Lagos governorship election has now become a contest and not a walk-over. The ruling party is going into the election as a divided house. Although, this is not the first time that the choice made by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the national leader of the party, has been questioned, the fallout of the October contentious primary is profound and still reverberating.

So many members are aggrieved, according to sources. But they are keeping quiet, silently studying the unfolding political situation. Olawale Oluwo Wasiu, commissioner for energy and mineral resources, resigned from the cabinet and the party on December 3, citing the poor conduct of the primary, which, he said, was characterised by “massive voter disenfranchisement, intimidation, violence, undue influence and non-compliance with all known principles of democracy.” There are many others, who also shared his opinion and may likely pitch their tents with opposition parties, just as the former commissioner, who has moved to the PDP.

The bulk of the aggrieved party members are from Epe division, where Ambode comes from. Although, the governor has appealed to his supporters to forget the past, and has declared support for Sanwo-Olu, it is very unlikely that Epe people, who are still angry that their man was denied a second term ticket, will vote for APC. Other supporters are also angry, more so when the governor was denied the party’s ticket despite a good performance.

The premise on which the governor was denied the ticket; that he was not ‘servicing’ party leaders, was not lost on voters, who are not card carrying members of any political party. There is the feeling among such voters that to guarantee his second term, state resources would be deployed by Sanwo-Olu to pamper such leaders to the detriment of the larger populace.

The ruling party may also suffer from perceived waning in influence of its national leader. In political circle, Lagos is described as a one-man show, and there is coalesce of forces, both in APC, opposition parties and eminent Lagosians, willing to clip Tinubu’s wings, just as his influence in the South-west is being challenged and curtailed. “Some people are even saying we should allow another party to do it, so we can see the difference. Some are saying they don’t know what is going on in the state,” a member of the party said.

Nothing illustrates Tinubu’s slipping hold on Lagos better than the 2015 governorship election results. In 2011, Babatunde Fashola, the candidate of Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, which metamorphosed into APC, beat his closest rival by more than one million votes. While Fashola scored 1,509,113 votes, Ade Dosunmu, the PDP candidate got 300,450. Olurotimi Olulana of Labour Party, LP, secured a mere 10, 221. In 2015, APC was able to beat the PDP by less than 200,000 votes. The party scored 812,394 votes to the PDP’s 659,738.

The opposition PDP also has its share of the problems. Its state Chairman, Moshood Salvador defected to APC. The defection was the climax of a bitter crisis that has engulfed the party for a long time. Agbaje, its candidate is also alleged to be at loggerheads with one of the leaders of the party, Chief Bode George.

The party has been a serial loser in the governorship race since 1999. With federal might at its disposal, it was a daunting task winning the “Centre of Excellence”. Despite spirited efforts in 2015, when then President Goodluck Jonathan relocated to the state for two weeks, the best it could get was to come second. This consistent failure may have dampened enthusiasm by members, despite APC’s self induced crisis.

Although, PDP has issues, Agbaje, its candidate, has many positives in his favour. He contested the seat in 2007 on the platform of Democratic People’s Alliance, DPA, and was reputed to have run the best campaign, but his party was unpopular. He got massive support in 2015 as candidate of PDP. Besides, he is well loved by the people, including professionals, some of whom contributed money to fund his campaigns in 2001 and 2015. Many Lagosians think he is one candidate that could occupy the Alausa Government House and make the difference, but belongs to the wrong political party.

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In 2019, just like in 2015, he is likely to get the support of the Igbo and other minority ethnic groups in the state. The whole of Badagry axis, including Festac, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Ojo, Amuwo Odofin have always been voting PDP because of the large presence of non-natives. Added to the list is Oshodi Isolo.

“By the time you remove Epe from Sanwo-Olu’s votes, there is problem. Epe and Ibeju are riverine areas. That’s where the votes to counter Badagry come from,” a source told The Nigerian Xpress.

But, his major undoing may likely be his penchant to play ethnic politics. He has been pitching the Igbo, most especially against the Yoruba in a state that has the latter as the major group. His recent tweet, where he recounted a statement allegedly made by the Oba of Lagos, Oba Rilwan Akiolu against the Igbo before the 2015 elections and another one where he alleged that Lagos was not against the Igbo, but the political class, could turn some Yoruba voters against him.

Sanwo-Olu still has a better chance of winning the election. If President Muhammadu Buhari wins the presidential election, the ripple effect would reverberate across the country. “Buhari is likely going to make lots of difference. If he (Buhari) wins handsomely, it may rub off on Sanwo-Olu. Even at that, if they (Lagos APC leadership) don’t try to bring everybody on board within those two weeks in between, it’s still dicey,” another party member said.

Plateau: Useni too old to unseat Lalong

The battle in Plateau State is not expected to be fierce, following the emergence of 75-year-old Jeremiah Useni, as candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to slug it out with Governor Simon Lalong of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Useni, a retired army general, is the Senator representing Plateau South in the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly.

The two major political parties respected the unwritten zoning arrangement enthroned by the late Chief Solomon Lar, first civilian governor of the state, as both Lalong and Useni hail from the Southern Senatorial District, where the governorship seat was zoned.

As election approaches, the people of the state have resolved to demand for the specifics, not just on the issues of economy and infrastructural development, but importantly the security challenges that have claimed and is still claiming several lives on daily basis.

Governor Lalong has been credited with stabilising the security situation in the last three and half years, but some felt he has not done enough to protect lives and property.

Lalong, who came to power in 2015, as the beneficiary of the resistance by the people, of plans to impose the late Senator Gyang Pwajok by former Governor Jonah Jang, was alleged to have betrayed the trust and mandate given to him by running the state with only his friends and political associates.

The governor has lost the support of most elder statesmen, such as former Nigerian Ambassador to Switzerland, Amb. Yahaya Kwande, Amb. Fidelis Tapgun, Dame Pauline Tallen among others.

Useni, as a retired army general, appears to have the confidence of the people in fixing the state’s security challenges. He has said that his ambition was to stop the daily killings of the innocent, using his security experience.

But his age is a serious albatross. There are concerns being expressed in some political quarters as to whether he has the energy and mental stability to perform up to peoples’ expectations. The choice of his running mate, Dr. James Dalok has also left his party more divided as some members of the State Working Committee are aggrieved.

Lalong is expected to win a second term going by all the permutations in the state.

Taraba: PDP, APC, UDP take the front seat

In Taraba State, the electorate is confronted with three choices; incumbent Governor Darius Ishaku of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, his predecessor Sani Abubakar Danladi of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and his arch rival, the former minister of women affairs, Senator Aisha Jumai Alhassan of the United Democratic Party UDP.

Governor Ishaku, who hails from southern zone, came to power in 2015 based on a zoning arrangement after the duo of Jolly Nyame and Danbaba Suntai of the central and northern zones respectively had enjoyed eight years tenure each.

Ishaku rode to power with the promise to turn around the fortunes of the state. His performance in the last three and half years, which has varying degrees of assessment, would play a key role in his re-election or otherwise.

However, the governor is the only Christian among the three candidates, in a state where religion plays key role in politics. With this, he seems to have advantage over his opponents. This, and the incumbency advantage, would make his re-election almost certain.

On her part, Senator Jumai Alhassan has distinguished herself as a political figure to reckon with. She proved herself a worthwhile opponent in 2015, and is, therefore, not a pushover.

She is currently playing gender-based politics and has won the hearts of women and the youths and may very well spring surprises, especially as she is gradually clearing the wrong notions that Islam forbids women from ruling, and that her party the UDP is unpopular. She is insisting that it is the candidate that matters, and not the platform. Only recently, young ladies in the state converged in their numbers to endorse her in a move considered unprecedented.

The task may seem Herculean, given that Muslim votes would be divided between her and Sani Danladi, and the zoning arrangement, which currently does not favour her, but with ‘Mama Taraba’ as she is fondly called, no hurdle is insurmountable.

Danladi was deputy governor to Suntai and subsequently acting governor, following the plane crash involving his principal, which incapacitated him. He played a key role towards the election of Ishaku in 2015.

He lost his seat as a senator in what is widely suspected to be a state conspiracy against his alleged “arrogance” and has vowed to prove to the incumbent that he has the capacity to dethrone just as much as he could enthrone.

The former senator is banking on the alleged non-performance of the current administration and federal might to clinch the governorship race.

With the two candidates having personal scores to settle, it is clear that the race for the number one seat in the state would be hotly contested.

How the game plays out ultimately remains to be seen, the incumbency advantage and relative stability in the PDP and credibility of their candidate notwithstanding.

Katsina

Masari: A smooth ride to second term

Four candidates are in the race for the Katsina State governorship elections. The incumbent, Alhaji Aminu Bello Masari, is seeking re-election on the platform of All Progressives Congress, APC. He has as opponents, Alhaji Garba Yakubu Lado of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Malam Abdulmumini Shehu Sani of the National Conscience Party, NCP, and Accord Party candidate, Alhaji Shehu Labo Suleiman Rimi.

Rimi is a Katsina-based businessman, while Sani contested the position in 2015. But from all indications, next year’s contest is between Masari and Lado.

Lado, popularly called Danmarke, hails from Danmarke in Kankara Local Government Area and was at various times a member of the House of Representatives and later represented the Katsina South Senatorial Zone at the Senate on the platform of the PDP. He was also chairman, Kankara Local Government between 1999 and 2002. His greatest strength in the governorship contest lies perhaps in his party’s support with an acclaimed determination to reclaim power, which it lost to APC in 2015.

Opposition parties contended that Masari’s performance since he came to power is below expectations and does not deserve a second term. “We are ready to take over government from the APC by 2019,” the state’s PDP Chairman, who is also Lado’s running mate, Alhaji Salisu Majigiri, said.

He alleged that the APC administration has tended to reverse the developmental efforts of 16 years of PDP in the state.

But Masari administration officials said the government has recorded some achievements, especially in the area of enhanced security.

As at the time the current administration mounted the saddle, cattle rustlers and other bandits called the shots in various communities across the state. But the government has since reversed the trend with an amnesty programme for repentant cattle rustlers, along with a number of other measures designed to check other forms of criminality.

The performance of the government has actually attracted generous accolades from non-residents of the state as the Director-General of the Industrial Training Fund, Sir Joseph Ari, summed it up recently when he led a team from his organisation on a courtesy visit to the governor at the Government House.

“I must say without mincing words that the people of Katsina are very lucky to have you as governor. We have watched how you have succeeded in changing the landscape of Katsina through your development strides particularly in the areas of empowering your people, agricultural development, ICT. You have succeeded in giving the people the dividends of democracy which they yearned for,” Ari said.

Whatever the arguments, Masari may indeed be said to have everything working in his favour, for success at the polls, just as in 2015 when he rode to power, like a number of other politicians, on the back of President Muhammadu Buhari with the popular ‘change’ slogan.

Some three years on, Masari has tended to build on a seeming impenetrable political structure with the APC fully in control in virtually all areas of the state. The state House of Assembly has all its members drawn from the party, along with the 15 members of the House of Representatives and the three Senators representing the three senatorial districts at the National Assembly.

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Moreover, with the APC emerging victorious at various local and national bye-elections in recent times, the opposition may indeed have a Herculean task unseating it during the governorship polls as Masari prepares for a smooth ride to a second term in office at Gen. Muhammadu House, seat of the Katsina State Government.

 

Ebonyi 2019: Umahi, Ogbuoji set for showdown

The governorship poll in Ebonyi State will be an interesting exercise, especially so because of the personalities of the candidates of the two leading political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the All Progressives Congress, APC – in the contest.

Governor Dave Umahi holds the ticket of the PDP, while the senator representing Ebonyi South Senatorial zone in the National Assembly, Chief Sonni Ogbuoji, is the flag bearer of the APC. Interestingly, the duo comes from the same senatorial district.

Although there are 32 other candidates eyeing the plum position from other political parties, the two candidates stand out because of the positions they currently occupy as well as the financial muscle and support base available to them.

At both ends, the two candidates appear to be very certain about their chances of clinching victory at the polls. And with the way and manner they assure their supporters of better days after the election, one wonders where they draw their air of certainty from.

Umahi, according to reports, has assured his ‘loyal’ aides that they would retain their appointments after “swearing-in” on May 29, 2019. On the hand, Ogbuoji, has not only assured his supporters of good rewards, but also promised the people of the state of better days ahead.

But despite the high hopes at both ends, there are a number of challenges they have to surmount if they must get to their political destination. Umahi, especially, according to findings, has literally been losing sleep over his competitor, who now has the advantage he (Umahi) had in 2015.

While the PDP was in power during the 2015 general elections, it had the security apparatus, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the finance and the foot soldiers to win.

Luckily, he found favour in the eyes of some PDP chieftains within the corridors of power in Abuja who had the ears of President Goodluck Jonathan.

It was gathered that they persuaded President Jonathan to dump the then governor, Chief Martin Elechi, and his godson, Dr Onyebuchi Chukwu, for Umahi, who was by then, Elechi’s deputy.

Chukwu, a former minister of health under Jonathan, resigned his ministerial appointment to seek the number one position in the state, but lost the ticket to Umahi.

It was believed that Jonathan sacrificed his minister who, without doubts, served him meritoriously, in order not to displease some Abuja-based PDP chieftains, whose support he needed for his re-election bid at the time.

Not pleased with the way and manner he was treated even as a sitting governor, Chief Elechi moved to the Labour Party with his supporters, including the former minister where they all pitched their political tent.

Umahi was the major beneficiary of that exit as it gave him the opportunity to consolidate his influence and as well shored up his chances of victory, which he eventually got at the poll.

But the 2018 election is a different ball game. PDP lost the presidential election to the APC in 2015. With the APC now in power in Abuja, there are uncertainties in the camp of the governor.

The Nigerian Xpress learnt that the governor has been reaching out to political gladiators within the APC to see if he could curry their favour, especially that of President Muhammadu Buhari.

That, perhaps, informed why he openly declared support for the re-election bid of the President, despite being a member of the opposition party.

Even then, Sen. Ogbuoji appears not distracted by this perceived antics. At various fora, the lawmaker spoke with some air of confidence that suggested that he has unalloyed support of his party’s hierarchies.

It is a common knowledge that the senator is a close ally of the National Chairman of his party, Adams Oshiomhole and some of its other leaders.

But the APC candidate may not get the support of the other two senatorial zones in the state. This is because the zones are eager to have power returned to them and as such would not want anybody that would start afresh and spend another eight years.

Again, it is almost inconceivable that the South-east would vote the APC, given the alleged gross marginalisation and neglect the zone has suffered under the present administration of President Buhari.

Besides, Sen. Ogbuoji has been accused by some of his people of being inaccessible and unapproachable. Some of his constituents have also accused him of concentrating constituency projects in his hometown, instead of spreading such, so that others can also benefit.

 

Sokoto: Gladiators fighting for the soul of the Caliphate

Three political parties; the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Social Democratic Party, SDP, will fight for the soul of Sokoto State, the seat of the caliphate.

Aminu Waziri Tambuwal will be seeking re-election on the platform of the PDP. His erstwhile deputy, Hon. Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto, will be representing the main opposition party, APC and Hon. Sadiq Mohammed Abubakar, secured the ticket of SDP.

Tambuwal was the Speaker, House of Representatives from where he defected to APC to contest the governorship election in 2015. He again defected back to the same party this year.

The Nigerian Xpress correspondent observed that on Tambuwal’s side are an array of highly profiled politicians that include a former minister and deputy governor of the state, Mr. Mukhtar Shagari, Alhaji Umaru Kwabo, a frontline politician, Hon. Dahiru Yusuf Yabo and Hon. Isah Galadanchi, a former counsellor to the Sultan of Sokoto.

Others include a former minister, Alhaji Bello Suleiman, who is chairing Tambuwal’s campaign’s Contact Committee, while Alhaji Mukhtar Maigona, was recently appointed as the director general for the governorship campaign.

In the camp of the APC, the Wamakko political structure is being relied upon by Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto and his supporters to win the state against his former boss.

The popularity of his running mate, Hon. Faruk Malami Yabo, adjudged to be a grassroots politician, is also a strong factor that could work in favour of the party.

Other notable political forces in the APC who will work against Tambuwal’s re-election bid include a member of the Board of Trustees of the party and former deputy governor, Alhaji Chiso Dattijo Abdullahi, former ministers like Bello Jibril Gada and Alhaji Yusuf Suleiman, former Secretary to the State Government, SSG, Alhaji Muhammadu Maigari Dingyadi as well as former Nigeria’s Ambassador to Morocco, Ambassador Abubakar Shehu Wurno.

APC also has the support of the Presidency in its attempt to win back the state. The party, no doubt, would want to throw everything into defeating Tambuwal to make a political statement.

Sadiq Abubakar, the SDP candidate, is a businessman who could play the role of a ‘dark horse’ or ‘spoiler’ in the contest.

His unique selling point to the electorate may be his claim that he is the first governorship candidate to have a blueprint on how best to govern the state. The blueprint covers such areas as youth development, security, job creation and sustainable economy and revival of agricultural potential of the state among others.

However, as it is today, political permutations suggest that the governorship tussle would be between the two political rivals and influential former governors of the state, Attahiru Bafarawa and Senator Aliyu Wamakko, who are backing their political godsons, Aminu Tambuwal and Ahmad Aliyu.

Imo: It’s a three-horse race

Of the over 40 candidates jostling to take over the rein of leadership from Governor Rochas Okorocha in Imo State, only three are major contenders.

They are the Emeka Ihedioha (Owerri Zone) of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Senator Ifeanyi Ararume (Okigwe Zone) of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, and Senator Hope Uzodinma (Orlu Zone) of the All Progressives Congress, APC.

Of the three senatorial districts in the state, only Owerri has ruled less with just 18 months in the saddle. Okigwe has had eight years and three months. Orlu, on the other hand, would have ruled for a record 16 years at the expiration of Okocha’s reign by May next year.

Hope Uzodinma – APC

Hope Uzodinma is from Orlu senatorial district and a member of the Coalition Alliance, a faction of the APC opposed to Governor Okorocha’s attempt to make his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, his successor.

Uzodinma, who was handed the governorship ticket by the national leadership of the party, following the disputed primary between his coalition alliance and the faction led by Governor Okorocha, is a popular politician with deep pocket and political structures across the 305 wards in the state. His political profile soared even higher after snatching the governorship ticket from Nwosu.

However, the general perception by many in the state is that the Okorocha government has not performed to expectation since 2011. This, they contended, would work against the APC next year. Coming out from Orlu zone, which has ruled the state the most is another major stumbling block to the ambition of Uzodinma. There are also the irreconcilable differences with the Okorocha-led faction of the party.

Emeka Ihedioha -PDP

The former Deputy Speaker of the House Representatives is not just the leading candidate, but a major contender for the Government House.

Ihedioha, who was his party’s governorship candidate in 2015, has a strong following in the state. One of his major advantages this time around, unlike in 2015, is the unity in the party. He is also from Owerri zone and there is a groundswell of support from political leaders and leaders of thought across the three senatorial districts that the Imo charter of equity must be restored.

Sen. Ifeanyi Ararume -APGA

The two-time senator from Okigwe zone is a wealthy businessman and a veteran politician, who has not hidden his desire to govern the state. He is not only popular but has one of the best close-knitted and oiled political structures in the state called the “Destiny Organisation”, which he established in 2007.

However, like Uzodinma, Ararume has an uphill task of convincing the Owerri zone why he should be supported, especially with the crisis within the party, where members and aspirants across the state, who had felt short-changed vowed not to support his ambition.

 

Ogun: Who succeeds Amosun?

For the first time in Ogun State, since 1999, political pundits as well as the people are in a quandary as to who would be the next governor in 2019. Unlike previous elections, where four months to the general elections, the shape of what to come would have taken form, only a soothsayer with foolproof crystal ball can tell how next year’s elections will play out in the Gateway state.

Apart from the increase in the number of personalities jostling for the number one seat, the intra-party wrangling within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and the major opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, has further added to the uncertainty that is likely to play out next year.

And with both APC and PDP in disarray, a strong third force is expected to advantage and hit the political space with force, but, the political horizon is still foggy.

The fallout of the governorship primary has thrown the APC into disarray. The party has been polarised between the camp of Governor Ibikunle Amosun and members loyal to the former governor of the state, Chief Olusegun Osoba.

Amosun’s anointed candidate, the member representing Egbado South/Ipokia Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives, Abdulkabir Akinlade has defected to Allied Peoples Movement, APM, and as the party’s standard bearer, the party will rely on the structure controlled by the incumbent governor. But it is doubtful if the APM can muster enough clout to win the big pie in Ogun.

Oil magnate and chairman, Corporate AffairS Commission, CAC, Prince Dapo Abiodun, who Akinlade lost to in the battle for APC governorship ticket will muster his political experience as a senator-elect in 1996, PDP governorship aspirant in 2003 and APC senatorial candidate in 2015, for governorship race.

Besides, the people of Ogun East senatorial district where he hails from, see him as a candidate of Ijebu-Remo Agenda, hence, they will rally round him to ensure he emerges as the next governor. He is also regarded as a close ally of the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo and that of the national leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. And if money will play a pivotal role in 2019, then Abiodun who is a billionaire, might carry the day. His only albatross will be the failure of the incumbent governor in the state to work for him.

Like APC, the PDP has also been beleaguered with leadership brouhaha. A faction, backed by Senator Buruji Kashamu and Bayo Dayo and recognised by a high court ruling, produced Leke Shittu as its candidate, while the Sikirulai Ogundele group, recognised by the national leadership has Oladipupo Adebutu as candidate. INEC accepted the candidacy of Shittu, based on the court pronouncement.

His name was later substituted for his alleged backer, Senator Kashamu who named Reuben Abati, an award winning journalist and columnist his running mate.

Kashamu’s hopes have, however, been dashed with an Appeal Court judgement, which overturned the high court ruling and pronounced Adebutu as authentic PDP candidate.

The chances of the PDP producing the next governor only becomes unassailable if the two factions bury the hatchet and produce a simple front.

With both APC and PDP in turmoil, a party such as the African Democratic Congress, ADC, with a governorship candidate in the person of Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, is expected to have a good showing at the poll.

Though his party is new in the state, but Isiaka, otherwise known as GNI, is like an old wine in a new bottle. He is no stranger to the race, having thrown his hat into the ring on two occasions.

He is an indigene of Imeko in Ogun West, a zone that has yet to produce the governor. Highly cerebral, Isiaka has an edge in 2019, particularly with the problems of APC and PDP. Although his endorsement recently by former President Olusegun Obasanjo may not translate to vote as the former president is not a political heavyweight in his state, GNI remains the man to beat.  But he and his party have a serious work to do in Ogun East. In Ogun Central, political sympathy might favour him.

Also in the race is former Speaker, House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, who is contesting on the platform of Action Democratic Party, ADP. His party has toured all the wards in the state with the promise of mass employment, youth and women empowerment. Bankole is from Ogun Central, where the incumbent governor hails from. This might work against him.  But like they say, it is not over until it is over. Also in politics, nothing is impossible.

 

Rivers: Can Wike survive Amaechi, Abuja assault?

The battle for the control of Rivers State Government House (Brick House) continues in 2019 between former governor of the state, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, who is the current Minister for Transportation and the incumbent, Nyesom Wike.

Both were comrades in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, until divergent interests brought a wedge between them.

Now, Amaechi is in the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, while Wike is the governor on the platform of the PDP. Although, Amaechi is not contesting, but every election in the state is an opportunity for the two gladiators to prove political superiority.

Outside Lagos, Rivers State is arguably the second most important and richest state because of its natural endowment.

APC is doing everything to take control of the state. All the three senators from the state are now in the ruling party. The last senator to defect was Osinachukwu Ideozu, whose defection was announced by the Senate Leader, Ahmed Lawan at the end of October.

Wike will slug it out with either Tonye Cole, or Senator Magnus Abe, depending on the outcome of the current court case over who is the authentic candidate of APC.

PDP and APC are the only two major political parties with visible presence in the state. There has been serious bitterness and hatred among political gladiators in the state, especially since the emergence of Wike as governor.

Wike, according to investigation by The Nigerian Xpress is in pole position to dust his opponents in 2019. This is because Rivers is purely a PDP-dominated state.

Besides, the governor, since his assumption of office in 2015, has executed many projects that earned him several national and international commendations. Though there are dissenting voices, his government has spread infrastructural projects across the 23 local government areas.

Apart from his developmental strides, the governor has been campaigning vigorously for re-election across the state.  He has also received endorsements for second term from groups.

Although, APC has in its fold, some formidable politicians, analysts contended that its major undoing may be its internal crisis that has created opposition within its fold.

Amaechi and Abe have been at each other’s throats, thereby tearing the party apart. The former governor is against Abe’s governorship ambition, as he preferred Cole, an oil tycoon as the candidate of the party.

 Enugu: Ugwuanyi in pole position to return

 

In Enugu State, it’s a straight battle between the incumbent, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Senator Ayogu Eze of the All Progressives Congress, APC.

From the days of Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani who was elected governor in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state with little or no opposition.

Both Ugwuanyi and Eze were aspirants in PDP in 2015 before the latter emerged as the party‘s flag bearer.

He contested that emergence in court, claiming to be the duly nominated candidate of the party. The matter ended at the Supreme Court few months ago in favour of Ugwuanyi and Eze defected to APC and contested the party’s primary.

As an opposition party, APC was boosted with the defections of prominent politicians like former governor of old Anambra State, Senator Jim Nwobodo, former Senate president, Ken Nnamani, former governor, Sullivan Chime, former secretary to the state Government, Onyemauche Nnamani and former speaker of the state House of Assembly, Mr. Eugene Odo.

The party has, however, suffered major setbacks as a result of protracted leadership crisis, which has caused irreconcilable differences amongst its major players.

Less than two months to the elections, the issue of who is the substantive state chairman of the party is subsisting in court between Dr. Ben Nwoye and Deacon Okey Ogbodo.

There is also a bitter tussle over the party’s governorship ticket. Although, the name of Chief Eze has been submitted to INEC, Mr. George Ogara, a product of the other faction, is in court challenging his emergence. The matter has been fixed for hearing on January 10, 2019 at an Abuja Federal High Court.

The PDP on the other hand has been enjoying a relatively smooth ride ahead of the polls. Apart from few defections by some aspirants who had issues with the party over the primary elections, the party appears more united with less distraction as the elections approach.

Going for Governor Ugwuanyi is his unprecedented disposition to peace and harmonious relationship, which has endeared him even to the opposition.

His relationship with the opposition had constantly led to some APC leaders accusing each other of sabotaging the party.

The governor has also maintained good relationship with elders in the state, including Nwobodo, Ken Nnamani and Chimaroke Nnamani.

The governor has also broken the jinx of a sitting governor fighting his predecessor/godfather, which had been the norm in the past. Even after the former governor Sullivan Chime defected to APC, Ugwuanyi has continued to accord him due respect.

In all, if there is any candidate, who could give Ugwuanyi sleepless nights, it is Senator Eze. Thus he was quickly adopted as candidate immediately he defected from the PDP.

For one, he has been around government circles, having served as commissioner under the Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani’s administration. He was also a major stakeholder in the PDP before his defection and should know all political tricks that could be used against his party.

However, he is facing a governor who majority believes has performed; one that has promoted peace and unity and whose political ratings tower well above that of his own.

Ugwuanyi is a grassroots politician who has refused to lose touch with his base, even as governor.

But for the humility of Ugwuanyi, it would have been a battle that can go either way. But his nature has endeared him to those who would decide the voting pattern when it matters most.

Leaders like Nwobodo and Ken Nnamani even as members of the APC are not sure of receiving a better treatment under Ayogu and, therefore, are believed to be working for Ugwuanyi.

The situation is worsened by the internal party wrangling, which is working in favour of the governor.

Thus, bookmakers do not expect anything less than an outright victory for the governor.

 

 

Abia: Ikpeazu, the man to beat as APGA, APC square up to PDP

An interesting race is in the offing in Abia State. Governor Okezie Victor Ikpeazu, of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is being serious challenged by Dr Alex Otti of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA.

Dr. Uchechukwu Sampson Ogah, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC’s, declared candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was a serious contender until High Chief Ikechi Emenike, was declared the authentic flagbearer of the party.

Ikpeazu has his strong base among his Ngwa clan, from where he got the bulk of the votes that propelled him to victory in 2015. His re-election bid is a major project here and with seven local governments, the governor is the man to beat.

Although there are challenges, the governor is reported to have done enough to earn second term.

Dr. Ogah, who hails from Uturu, Isikwuato, Abia north senatorial zone was a popular candidate until the court ruling that stopped him in his track.

There are two factions in the state with different executives. One is led by Donatus Nwankpa and the other by Emma Ndukwe. Ogah was produced by the Nwankpa-led executive, while Emenike is the candidate of the Ndukwe-led executive. The battle for the authentic state executive is still raging in court.

The inability of APC to put its house in order will be a major setback for the party.

 

Otti, the candidate of APGA, has a better chance than APC.

A banker turned politician, he took the state’s political space by storm in 2015, but could not go far. Now, he is back as the candidate of a major political party, and his major strength stems from the fact that he is grounded in Abia north and central zones and is loved by the people. He is also popular in Aba, the commercial nerve centre of the state.

 

Kano: Ganduje scaling the huddle despite bribery allegation

In Kano State, few political parties have what it takes to win the governorship race and they are the ones presenting candidates for the election.

They are the All Progressives Congress (APC). It  is the ruling party in the state. The main opposition is the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, which was in power for close to a decade. Others are the upcoming Peoples Redemption Party, PRP, and the Social Democratic Party, SDP.

Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is the candidate of the APC, Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf is flying the flag of the PDP, Mallam Salihu Sagir Takai is representing the PRP. There is also Alhaji Muhammad Abacha of the All Peoples Democratic Alliance, APDA, who is probably an additional attraction to the race, but not in contention.

Until few weeks ago, it was difficult to predict where the pendulum would swing in the governorship contest. The political atmosphere in the state was fouled by the trending issue of the multi-million dollar bribery allegation leveled against Governor Ganduje by an online media. He was accused of collecting kickbacks in foreign currency from contractors, an accusation he denied.

The calculations then were that should the APC fail to re-present him on account of the allegation, it would take some courage and character for whoever was to replace him to make the required impact at the poll. There was also the fear that the people of the state, hugely provoked by the allegation, would reject the governor if he is re-presented to contest the race.

But with the controversy laid to rest for now by a court order, there are signals that the incumbent is regaining his impetus and would have a good run at the poll.

A number of factors are in favour of this assumption. The Buhari phenomenon is still alive and shaping the politics of the state. Despite the failings of the administration, which is in the public domain, many people are still favourably disposed to the return of the president for the fact that he is their own.

Dr. Ganduje is also expected to do well because he has good relationship with many segments of the state; the Ulamas, women groups, the political class, the youths, etcetera. He has the support of people like Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, a former governor of the state and a senatorial candidate of the party. In fact, at the moment, many politicians, who had previously defected to other political parties, are returning to the ruling party.

The PDP may also not be pushovers, although the party has serious challenges. The choice of their governorship candidate is not popular among the members as a result of the process that led to his emergence. As such, many members are aggrieved. The party has also lost grounds in recent days with some members defecting to both the APC and SDP.

But PDP is not finished, as some have predicted, and may still spring surprises.

The reasons are many. First, the party has a set of financially buoyant candidates, who are members of the House of Representatives and with good network of supporters. They are not going to go down without a fight.

Besides, the party’s godfather in the state, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has what it takes to swing more votes in their favour, while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the party has his own sizeable number of supporters.

PRP, on its part, is scaling up its support base by the day, learning the ropes in a hurry. Although, it is still poorly funded, the party appears to be converting many of the undecided voters and re-inviting others, who were hitherto outside the political process as a result of frustration with the system.

Kano is the home of Mallam Aminu Kano, who was responsible for the emancipation of many indigents in the state. Many people hope that a return to the past is a sure way to defeat the failings of the present and are likely to cast their votes in this direction.

But all indications point to victory for the ruling party.

 

Jigawa: APC in pole position as PDP suffers from defection

The 2019 general elections in Jigawa State is going to be a straight fight among the three leading political parties, namely the All Progressives Congress, APC, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the Social Democratic Party, SDP.

The parties have Alhaji Abubakar Badaru, APC, Alhaji Aminu Ringim, PDP, and Alhaji Bashiru Adamu of the SDP as their respective gubernatorial candidates.

To a large extent, the chances of each of these candidates would go a long way in influencing the outcome of the polls for their respective political parties.

APC’s Badaru, is the governor of the state. He is expected to rely heavily on incumbency factor as he seeks the mandate of the people for a second term.

He would also depend greatly on the Buhari factor, which is evident in the politics of the state. But more than these, he would rely on his own performance which, many held, is not too bad.

Although, generally seen as stingy, the governor, The Nigerian Xpress learnt has constructed many rural roads and also impacted on the education sector through the construction of several classrooms.

Ringim is also a candidate to watch in the gubernatorial race. He was tipped to come top in the 2015 elections, but was defeated narrowly by the current governor. A godson of Alhaji Sule Lamido, the state’s former governor, it is obvious that he would benefit from the sterling performance of his godfather during his eight years reign in the state.

Ringim’s experience in the governance of the state is also recognised as something that would persuade some people to vote for him. He was chief of staff to Alhaji Saminu Turaki and Lamido when the duo served as governors of the state.

Adamu of the SDP is also very popular in the state. He is going to draw a lot from his vast experience as four-time member of the House of Representatives. To his advantage is his performance in the House where he is adjudged to have offered credible representation to the people of Kazaure.

One thing he has enjoyed with considerable ease is the flow of aggrieved persons from the APC and PDP and if he continues at this pace, he may spring surprises.

Given that the three candidates are strong in their own right, the factor that may likely swing the result of the election against the PDP is the way it conducted its primary, which has led to the defection of many of its influential members, the latest being Alhaji Ali Sa’ad Birnin Kudu, another former governor of the state.

If this trend is not checked, it would be safe to predict that APC would emerge victorious in the state.

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