Politics of defection and second term factor

Defection, decamping or carpet crossing is never strange to the Nigerian politics. It has been a recurring decimal in the political lexicon of the country’s democratic setting, be it parliamentary or presidential system. And the reason or motive behind the exercise varies from one individual  to another.

In the recent time in Nigeria, the gale of defection from one political party to another appears so alarming to the extent that, political pundits and social commentators seem confused as to what is really happening on the country’s political turf. It is against this backdrop that The Nigerian Xpress attempts to examine the major reasons behind the sudden upsurge in the way top politicians, along with their supporters, dump their original political families to pitch their tents with others that were hitherto their arch rivals in electoral context.

The result of the research shows two major factors being considered before hopping from one political family to another. They are political patronage and second term consideration.

Political patronage

This concerns majorly some top politicians, who occupy elective offices within the opposition parties but are almost completing their constitutionally allowed two terms in office. And since it is a well-known fact that the room of political patronage is very wide and almost limitless, Nigerian politicians in the opposition camps that fall in the category under discourse would put on their thinking caps and move to the ruling party in preparation for further political greener pasture after the office.

This suspected consideration must have informed reason the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) described Governors David Umahi and Ben Ayade of Ebonyi and Cross Rivers states, respectively as selfish when they opted out of the party to join the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Feeling uncomfortable with the development, the PDP leadership viewed their actions as selfish and betrayal of trust.

The party’s spokesman, Kola Ologbondiyan, has repeatedly condemned the development, wondering how people who rode on the back of the party to power, could turn round to stab the same party in the back? To the PDP, Ayade and Umahi have sadly bitten the fingers that fed them.

Feeling sad, the Rivers State Governor, Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, simply described the governors’ actions as unfair to the PDP.

It was this accusation that both governors spent precious time and energy to defend. They told whoever cared to listen that their defections were not for selfish and pecuniary political gains.

Debunking the accusation of selfishness  earlier in an interview, Ayade said his defection to the ruling party was never to actualise his presidential ambition in 2023. He explained that, the good attitude, attributes and good works of President Muhammadu Buhari endeared him (Buhari) to his heart.

“The realisation that Cross River, which has been emasculated economically, following the ceding of its oil wells years ago, needed to be in sync with the party at the centre,” Ayade  added, insisting: “Having seen and known the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and his commitment to this country, his nationalistic disposition and all the efforts he has made to bring Nigeria to where we are today, it is obvious that at this point we needed to join hands with him to build a Nigeria that we can be proud of.”

The govrnor even went a step further to stress the need for all governors to recognise that it is not party that matters, but the character, the honour and the commitment to the vision of this great country called Nigeria, soliciting for cooperation with President Buhari “to ensure a team that would work towards building a prosperous country that the succession worries of 2023 would come without the fears and the worries the international community has for us.”

He was quoted as saying that, “if every one of us as governor joins hands with Mr. President, I think we can sit on the same dining table and fashion out a way to govern this country properly and move it forwards to the next level of an enviable standard.”

Echoing Ayade’s submission, his comrade in the defection ship, David Umahi of Ebonyi State, explained that his joining the APC in November 2020 was borne out of the “injustice meted to South East by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)” which, he lamented, includes denying the zone the party’s 2023 presidential ticket.

Umahi said he was of the conviction that the ruling APC was better disposed to the interest of the five states in the South-east geo-political region, insisting that he neither had presidential ambition nor was he promised by anyone or any party.

His exit, he asserted, was mainly to actualise the emergence of a Nigerian of Igbo ethnic stock, as the nation’s next chief executive in 2023.

“Having been successful as re-elected governor and businessman, I would return to the latter at the completion of my political voyage,” Umahi asserted.

He insisted that he was not driven by selfish interests, but the need to protest against marginalisation, stating that the region has benefited more from the APC government and that the protest has started long ago as expected from courageous people who mean well for their people.

Enters Matawalle

The dust raised by the defection of the duo of Ayade and Umahi has hardly settled down when another PDP governor, Bello Muhammad Matawalle of Zamfara State also jumped onto the bandwagon of APC joiners.

Also defending himself, the newcomer into the APC said he defected to the ruling party, not for any selfish interest but rather to strengthen political unity in his state, debunking further media reports that the governor was forced to join it to stop killings in the state.

Speaking through his media aide, Yusuf Idris, the governor said, “It is a known fact that Governor Matawalle is one of the leaders in the country that speaks wisdom on all matters and he joined the APC in order to strengthen political unity in the state for the purpose of bringing more development to his people.”

Idris, however, admitted that, the governor’s defection was also due to “the upper hands he had been enjoying from President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC high command on all matters concerning the state,” adding that “the governor’s mission for joining the ruling party was nothing more than that.”

Idris was reportedly quoted as concluding that “any other report contrary to that is mischievous and the handiwork of those diversionary characters that have remained vehemently opposed to the defection to APC by Governor Matawalle.”

Political observers, read admission of political patronage as a motive for defection in the statement of Matawalle’s spokesman’s submitted that “the upper hand she (Matawalle) had been enjoying from President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC high command on all matters concerning the state.”

According to them, it is insinuated that if such a consideration could be enjoyed from the president and his party (APC), tendencies are there that he would be more favoured as a bonafide member of the party, more so, at the higher level.

Second term factor

It was the South-west Zonal Secretary of the APC, Ayo Afolabi, who in a recent chat with The Nigerian Xpress boasted that no opposition governor in the entire south-western axis would remain a day in office beyond May 29, 2023. And when asked whether he was referring to Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, the South-west APC zonal scribe advised him to start packing his bag and baggage with a view to exiting the Government House.

According to him, APC will regain the state from the PDP. He asserted that the “South-west region of the country is undoubtedly the catchment area of the APC, which is a ‘No Go Area’ for opposition parties no matter the name they call themselves.

So, when recently Governor Makinde sacked all his commissioners, not a few political analysts viewed the action as a prelude towards decamping to the ruling APC so as to belong to the safe political haven. The insinuation is all over the place that the commissioners were sacked with a view to creating space to accommodate members of the APC in his new cabinet in the event of his defection to pacify those his defection would dislodge from the line of governorship ambition.

It is a known fact that the highest-ranking elective officers in various states become automatic leaders of the party in their domain. In that wise, if Makinde eventually decamps to the APC, he automatically becomes the APC leader in Oyo State and would thus put a wedge against the governorship ambitions of several aspirants. This is so because of the consideration the party would have for the sitting governor in going for a second term.

It is even being rumoured in some quarters that Makinde has commenced consultations with top hierarchy stakeholders across board in the state to sample their views over the development. Members of the coalition parties that facilitated his election are said to be the first he would consult before taking a final decision. Though our source did not mention names, another reliable contact confided in our correspondent that former governor of the state, Senator Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja of the Accord Party would be among the first set of people Makinde would consult.

A member of the newly constituted officers of the PDP, Oyo State chapter, who pleaded anonymity, confirmed the governor’s move, disclosing that, “the consultations would end with President Muhammadu Buhari in Aso Villa, Abuja very soon.”

To Bello Matawalle of Zamfara State, Makinde’s rumoured defection plan has been actualised before the APC congresses and final National Convention would be organised so as to be in good stead to retain his position for a second term in his state.

Recall that Zamfara State was APC state before the intra party wrangling that denied it participation in the 2019 governorship election. The party was disqualified by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and thus gave the PDP a sort of unopposed chance to govern the state since then.

And not a few political observers would agree that for Matawalle to remain on the gubernatorial seat for another four years after 2023, he has to do the needful, which he has done by defecting to the ruling party.

With the foregoing, one wonders if not for political patronage and second term consideration, what else could have made the APC the political cynosure of all eyes overnight.